Hidy, folks. Quick in and out, lots going on here.
Still a day or two from finishing the levee assessment for Katrina. Patience, it's a big job.
Found some decent links to help get up to speed on hurricane theory and historical performance in and around the Houston area.
Here's a report on computer flood modeling for Galveston and Gas City, areas of notable concern given the current course tracks and eyewall radius:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BPHYX/$File/chapter5.pdf
The first half is in reference to global warming, just scroll down to the hurricane surge section for the useful info.
Here's an overview of past hurricanes and how they affected various areas:
http://www.h-gac.com/NR/rdonlyres/evyjm5vyexn3f6v3jdam2mdkmxrjk4gzunftekkv5r2p7gyqlo3ssai5e674anordggfhhm3kgk6jtai6j3d6pgkhtf/Section+4.2+Hazard+Analysis.pdf
If someone could note a couple of the more significant storms and post some links to more detailed data on what effects they had, especially surge and runoff flooding, I'd appreciate it. I know others are busy too, so if there aren't any pings back on this by tonight, I'll dig some up myself. I'm good on the Galveston storm, but it's a good example for this one as long as the track stays steady.
Still too early to call a landfall location, but as the storm gets closer to shore, I'll pull down some 10 meter per pixel elevation models and do some surge forecasting, but don't expect to see that until Thursday or Friday.
A from a quick and dirty 30 meterper pixel surge simulation I ran, a very rough rule of thumb is that the 20 foot line tends to be around 10 miles inland from CC to Houston. Do NOT use this figure for any more than a rough idea of what to expect, local conditions and terrain and actual landfall location will be the final determinant.
That's all for now, I'll be lurking until about 24 hours before landfall, popping in only occasionally till then.
For you hardcore, and you know who you are, plan your weekend for some long stints online, and be ready to settle in for the long haul too. Houston isn't New Orleans, but this storm has the potential to rival the mighty Katrina herself, in windspeed and surge. For some odd reason, possibly random chance, historically, Texas hurricanes seem to stall frequently just onshore, so be looking at total rainfall potentials too.
Hasta for now...
For the second document, the hurricane info begins on page 8.
This may be helpful:
Atlantic Tropical Storm Tracking by Year from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis
This is a list of Atlantic hurricanes since 1851. Provided are charts on the track of the storm plus a text based table of tracking information. The table includes position in latitude and longitude, maximum sustained winds in knots, and central pressure in millibars.