[No Blue States]

Sorry, I didnt mean to wish Rita in your direction.

The loops seem to show possible NW movement now, more than a wobble.
For the 1st time to me it looks like even NOLA could be in play.

Im no expert though, probably just watching this too close.

What do you think:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html


Maybe im overanalizing too few frames.

[Strategerist]

The sort of deviation from model consensus for it to hit NOLA at this point would be basically unprecedented in recent times.

However the 18Z Globals, GFS and NGP (most aren't avaliable at 6 and 18Z, and these "in-between" runs have a reputation for squirelliness, which I suspect is unfounded) have both moved to a Galveston/Houston solution, a pretty good shift from the Matagorda Bay area.

[Brad’s Gramma]

BTTT....

[nwctwx]

I think it's just about a trend. I'd call it a wobble for now, but I think it's slowly moving north on its path.

NOLA is not in play.

[Dog Gone]

It definitely looks as if it will pass north of the forecast point, but I can't tell a wobble from a course shift until it's well in hindsight.

I've never been in the gunsights of a hurricane this big. Few people have. Now there are about 4.5 million more people who are sharing that experience right now.

My fascination with hurricanes has a very personal element to it at the moment. I look at that storm and am in awe of how quickly it developed.

The NHC has it forecast as a Cat 1 storm over Austin. That's in the hills. That's quite some distance from the coast.

People have fled Houston to Austin and they're going to be nailed there. That's how big Rita is. Yikes.