...Rita reaches 165 mph winds...becomes an extremely dangerous category five hurricane...the second of the 2005 season...
at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.4 north...longitude 86.8 west or about 600 miles east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 700 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...with higher gusts. Rita is an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
Pressure has been falling rapidly during the day and the latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet over the next 24 hours with large waves on top and residents there could experience flooding.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.4 N... 86.8 W. Movement toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure...914 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Avila
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and yet another category five hurricane this season. Data from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunters indicate a significant pressure drop today and winds have increased to 145 knots. This is based on a 700 mb wind of 161 knots recently measured by an Air Force plane and a recalibrated SFMR surface wind of 146 knots. Satellite intensity estimates were unanimously 140 knots from all agencies. Because Rita will be crossing an area of high heat content during the next 12 to 24 hours...it is expected that the hurricane will maintain its strength. Thereafter...the ocean heat content is not as high and the intensity changes will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and decreasing heat content. Some weakening is anticipated but Rita is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.
There has been no change in the steering pattern and Rita is moving westward or 275 degrees at 11 knots. The high pressure system that has been forcing Rita westward is forecast to weaken and shift eastward. This will allow the hurricane to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and northwest during the next day or two. The core of Rita is basically moving toward the Texas coast and this is consistent with the track model consensus.
The wind field associated with the hurricane has begun to expand and tropical storm force winds already extend about 150 N mi in the northern semicircle. Because additional expansion of the wind field is anticipated...a Hurricane Watch and a tropical storm watch have been issued for the northwest Gulf Coast.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/2100z 24.4n 86.8w 145 kt 12hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 145 kt 24hr VT 22/1800z 25.2n 90.6w 145 kt 36hr VT 23/0600z 26.0n 92.7w 135 kt 48hr VT 23/1800z 27.0n 94.5w 125 kt 72hr VT 24/1800z 30.5n 97.0w 65 kt...inland 96hr VT 25/1800z 33.0n 97.0w 30 kt...inland 120hr VT 26/1800z 36.0n 96.0w 25 kt...inland
70miles!! That's up from 45miles. Becoming a wider area of destruction now.
at 4 PM CDT a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.
At 4 PM CDT a tropical storm watch has been issued for east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.