Another run of the models later that afternoon shows LBAR predicting a second lanfall at Venice, LA and then again on the MS/AL border. Other models also called the MS/AL border for second landfall.
Later that same day LBAR shifts left again with second landfall at Terrebonne Parish, then through NOLA, across the lake and into MS.
An early morning run on the 26th has LBAR as a far western outlier with second landfall at St. Mary Parish and through Lafayette.
Five hours later on the 26th LBAR is nearly spot on with the center of the storm passing to the east of NOLA. All other models were calling Pensacola and Panama City, FL.
Late on the 26th everybody shifts west with GDFL being right on the money for the future strike.
By mid-day on the 28th pretty much every model was converging on the NOLA hit. UKMET and NHC still wanted Moss Point/Pascagoula, MS. UKMET held out till early morning on the 29th to converge.
The latest LBAR run picks Port Aransas as landfall for Rita. We'll see.
1. I realize that each year, we get somewhat better at predicting propable hurricane paths....but I was wondering, looking back over the records since WW II...were there any hurricanes, especially Gulf ones..that displayed any really weird movement? I seem to recall one some time back that just about doubled back on itself...
2. Are Gulf and Carribean hurricanes..because they are far more likely to pass over land a few times..more unpredictable in their path?
3. Are larger, more powerful storms, the Cat 4 & 5, more likely to stay closer to a predicted path..?
