She would have to stall in the central GOM for there to be a chance of a NOLA hit. With the ridge building east over the southern U.S., I just don't see that happening.
I am glad to hear that, maybe we could keep that info from Nagin.
I don't know man. The 12Z GFS shows at 72hrs out the 200 mb high pressure dome capping Rita in the SE quad of the 850mb warm core low. The pronounced zonal flow streaming E from the Yucatan Penninsula across the Bay of Compeche indicated in the NGP 12Z run at 72hrs to be almost nonexistant. The GFS 12Z model at 72hrs shows a pronounced 200mb trough forecast to descend out of New Mexico, that in conjuction with the 200mb high pressure cap, will force Rita NNW. The 12Z GFS is intimating landfall plausible E of Houston to W of NO.
NGP on the other hand, shows the high pressure cap to the NE quadrant of the warm core low. The steering winds are directly south (the previously indicated strong zonal flow E-W from Yucatan Penninsula across Bay of Compeche directly bisecting Mexico). The GFS trough isn't shown at all. The predominant feature is a massive high pressure system (extending as far north as MI, WI, and the Dakotas), the center of which is the warm core low high pressure cap. According the NGP, Rita will take a deep SW track before turning radically and sharply NW, making landfall near Brownsville (possbily even south if it).
There's way too much divergence in those two models for any sense of confidence. I think we have to watch and see if any sense of convergence firms up in the 00Z models. But I'm pretty sure that by the NEXT 12Z run, things should be pretty clear one way or another.
GFS isn't showing any stalling in GOM either, but significant intensification. Without any attenuation of the GFS model, a Cat 3 minimum landfall in LA is entirely plausible (perhaps even as early as Fri night - late). In contrast, a Brownsville landfall looks Cat 2 according to NGP (early morning Sat).