"THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST AND RITA APPROACHES FROM THE EAST."
This is what is expected to let Rita go North.
Could you elaborate on this? Good to see you btw.
As long as she keeps moving along at this speed, she will get to TX before the trough has much effect on it.
Recent models have pretty much given up on the idea of any sort of LA threat, and I expected that to happen.
I think it will hit the central TX coast before much of a turn to the north, but it will probably be headed WNW or NW at that point as the trough begins to do its work.