I just got a look at Eastern, in particular them pointing toward the GFDL model, which is suggesting (and yes, I think it's nuts) that Rita will make CAT 5 much, MUCH earlier (i.e., near Key West).
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=52689
The posters there are pointing out that the GFDL usually over-compensates on the intensity, but even given that, Rita could be notably stronger than the CAT 2 that most have suggested for arrival at Key West...
All intensity forecast models are basically worthless.
It's the great unsolved problem in tropical meteorology. Not only are they generally worthless, they're not getting better.