Unfortunately this doesn't work.
The Maori party will never side with National - National campaigned on limiting future claims under the treaty of Waitangi (which guaranteed the Maori certain rights, and is now used to reclaim land sold/taken in the 1700s-1860s, and get exclusice rights to fisheries etc). They also promised to abolish the Maori electoral seats (i.e. so there are no racially-based votes). That would kill the Maori party.
This means Labour can naturally pull 61 seats - Labour, Maori, Progressive and Green - effectively reforming the current government + additional Maori special interests.
National can count on ACT for support. United Future promised to talk first to the party with the most votes, but also would not go into government with the Greens, so they're National. New Zealand First promised not to go into coalition with anyone, but support the party with the most votes on supply and confidence issues. That means Labour can form their coalition with more votes. Also if they appoint a National member as Speaker of the House, that person only gets a tie-breaking vote, so Labour's coalition would have 61/121 votes.
I simply can't see us winning this one, unless the special votes still to be counted (from overseas etc) do something unexpected - these normally swing left though.
So Labor's 61 votes can trump National's 61 vote grouping that I outllined? How would this work?