Replies

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

"Retail gasoline prices are likely to remain very high for some time to come, with as much as 5 percent of refinery capacity possibly being out of commission for a few months. In addition, while crude oil production from the Gulf of Mexico continues to improve, it may be some time before production is back to pre-hurricane levels. But there are some indications that retail gasoline prices may have peaked, or if not, are very close to the peak. While gasoline imports were down during the week ending September 2, this is expected to change over the next couple of weeks. It generally takes about 2 weeks for gasoline imports to arrive from Europe and other sources and get incorporated into the U.S. gasoline supply chain. And with the price jump seen over the last week, there are reports that gasoline shipments are on their way and should begin arriving possibly as early as late this week. Also, an announcement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that over 30 million barrels of relief was coming from IEA countries outside the United States, some in the form of gasoline volumes drawn from their government-owned and controlled stockpiles, should also aid in adding supply and putting immediate downward pressure on prices. The sale of up to 30 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in addition to the 12.6 million barrels of crude loaned to refiners earlier to meet more immediate concerns, should also alleviate any concerns refiners might have in terms of crude oil supply over the next several weeks. News that the Plantation and Colonial pipelines are back at full capacity, along with news that some refineries are returning to full capacity this week, should also help supply issues and lower prices. However, it may be awhile before retail prices return to pre-hurricane levels as there appears to be four refineries (ChevronTexaco located in Pascagoula, MS; ConocoPhillips located in Belle Chasse, LA; ExxonMobil located in Chalmette, LA; and Murphy located in Meraux, LA) that are likely to be down for an extended period. These refineries help supply the Plantation and Colonial pipelines and it is unclear how easily and efficiently increased gasoline imports will be able to be inserted into the distribution system. But EIA expects prices to be lower by the end of September than they are now, and they should continue to fall throughout most of the next couple of months, absent any disruptions to supply from other hurricane activity or other factors."