WTNT32 KNHC 271451
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405
MILES... 655 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WWWW
--
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.344 / Virus Database: 267.10.16/83 - Release Date: 8/26/2005
I think most people here now know how to read these statements fairly clearly. Winds at 115 mph with a pressure of 940 mb. The stats for a Cat 3 are 111-130. The expected barometric pressure for a Cat 3 is 945-964 mb. This hurricane had wind speeds at the very low end of Cat 3 but had a barometric pressure in the Cat 4 range. Not a good mix. Moving at only 7 mph: means it has plenty of time to grow. No shear winds and nice hot Gulf waters: even very early Saturday it was obvious that this was a scary storm. Once this report came across and was evaluated, the mandatory evacuation should have happened.