As a professional meteorologist, I, along with other collegues, was shocked at the tepid response of the Louisiana government, in particular New Orleans. It was clear to us on Friday that this storm would explode into a major hurricane. While the official track in the morning had it aimed at Panama City, FL, there was a strong trend in our guidance that suggested the storm would impact areas much farther west. By Friday evening the official track shifted to New Orleans. At THAT time, a voluntary evacuation order should have been issued in New Orleans. On Saturday, it became apparent that this storm would be potentially catastrophic, reaching category 5 status, which it did Saturday night. Given the high level of confidence on the intensity forecast, a mandatory evacutation order should have been issued for the city in the morning. This would get most of the tourists out by nighttime and allowed city officials to concentrate on those who were stubborn or did not have the means to get out.
On Sunday, the scenario many meteorologists have known would come eventually appeared imminent, with a category 5 hurricane (175 mph winds and a barometric pressure of 902...the second lowest ever measured in the Atlantic!). It does not get more dire than how it looked Sunday. This is a scenario that only a Sci-Fi doomsday writer dares think about. I was stunned to find Nagin completely ineffectual in his personal interviews with the media (which were a waste of time imo), and he and the surrounding parishes seemed to be doing little. Traffic was heavy out of the city, but not as heavy as it should have been if 50%+ of the population was actually leaving. It was clear that most people would ride this out.
Had Katrina made landfall west of New Orleans at 175 mph, there would be no looting problems, or sick and hungry people because everyone in that city would be dead. The Superdome (which had never been stress-tested under those conditions, yet another astonishing decision by the government) would likely have collapsed on those taking refuge. A somewhat less severe, but still tragic scenario ensued in which Katrina went just a bit farther east and weakened somewhat. The National Hurricane Center reported wind gusts in New Orleans of Tropical storm strength (40 mph+) as early as 5 PM and it began to pick up in earnest around 8-10 pm.(www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KNEW.html)
Nagin issued a voluntary evacuation order Sunday morning in a city that likely doesn't wake up (at least many) on a Sunday morning until noon. That left 8 hours of safe evacuation time for many people who were only then realizing how grave the situation was.
There are two tragic consequences with this storm, one being property and the other the plight of the people that stayed behind. The property issue is likely unresolvable in that area given the proximity of the water and the low land. The people issue is managable (albeit extremely difficult) and comprehensive plans to evacuate as many people as possible (with particular concentrations on women, children, the elderly, and the sick) should have been (and from what I can gather had been previously) in place for years.
That a mandatory evacuation order (which is rarely enforced anyway but can serve to scare) was issued so late is beyond incompetent...it approaches criminal. As a meteorologist, seeing what I did on Saturday and Sunday, I regard what Nagin did as very nearly tantamount to murder. Nagin set sail in the Titantic with full knowledge he had too few lifeboats.
Apologize for what has turned out to be a long post.
Good post! Thanks.
Thanks for your long post.
I'd already BOOKMARKED this thread. Now I doubly glad I did.
Thanks for the insight. Every word was well worth reading.
That was magnificent. A heavy weight of responsibility rests on Nagin, and he won't take one ounce of it.