Ususally eyewall replacement cycles will weaken the storm first quite dramatically before it then strengthens to worse than before.
However, this storm just has slowly weakened during the same cycles, but to only a slight degree....and then started to even strengthen during those cycles.
I do not know if it has time to fully go through the cycle and strengthen a lot, but by the time it hits land, it probably will be entering a slow strengthening phase and be about where it is now in intensity.
"Ususally eyewall replacement cycles will weaken the storm first quite dramatically before it then strengthens to worse than before.
However, this storm just has slowly weakened during the same cycles, but to only a slight degree....and then started to even strengthen during those cycles.
I do not know if it has time to fully go through the cycle and strengthen a lot, but by the time it hits land, it probably will be entering a slow strengthening phase and be about where it is now in intensity."
I wonder if the very warm water will make up for it hitting land soon...since warmer water will strengthen it alone... sucks either way