I am still puzzled why, for example, an "average conservative" would decide that Hawking's estimate of the the odds against abiogenesis translate into lessened expectations for SETI. If an intelligent designer created all life on earth, how does this create a low probability for that same inteligent designer having created life on some other planet?
That's a pretty good point. For the SETI stuff, their search for life can be justified with an ID hand-waving on top of any abiogenesis probabilities. They're in a catbird seat.
The SETI project was criticized from an abio point of view, and the scientist who did it used some probability calculations which appear to have been peer reviewed. I am looking for any peer-reviewed update of those probability calculations. That would be my starting point for acceptable material to use for purposes of public policy discussions.