You've lost perception of the time span of a track forecast.
Actually not. For my purposes -- trading -- the important part isn't the time span, the ''when'', it's the ''where''. Katrina is evidently now likely to hit X number of GOM rigs, and that will skew prices hugely for a couple of days, and longer term will contribute to the spec fever which has been infecting energy prices for half a year or so.