Is China building a carrier?

Janes Defence Weekly. ^ | 8/25/2005 | Yihong Chang

[Colorado Doug]

Chinese shipyard workers have been repairing a badly damaged ex-Russian aircraft carrier and have repainted it with the country's military markings, raising the question once again of whether China is pursuing longer-term plans to field its first carrier.

In the latest developments, images show that workers at the Chinese Dalian Shipyard have repainted the ex-Russian Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier Varyag with the markings and colour scheme of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy (PLAN). Additional new photographs show that other work, the specifics of which could not be determined, appears to be continuing and that the condition of the vessel is being improved.

[Non-Sequitur]

Taking a hulk as badly stripped as the Varyag was and rebuilding it probably cost them a lot more than copying the design and starting from scratch would have. But it's not like they're hurting for money.

[Mark Felton]

They will get themselves in such debt with their military build-up that they will have to "acquire" Taiwan to pay for it all.

Besides Taiwan is protected by the US market, not US missiles.


US wealth was mostly created by our own internal economy. China's wealth is created mostly by the US economy. Thus, warfare with the US would be suicidal economically. (The Chinese could miscalculate that the US needs the Chinese more than the Chinese needs the US. That is true only of the Fortune 100 companies, not of the American people)

[in hoc signo vinces]

Exactly...and the Navy is only diminshed in terms of size, not operational technique. We know how to "fight" a sea going navy better than anyone on this planet.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

By the time Hillary takes over, they will be ready.

With all their new military assets and their old political ass, et back in the White House, we'll be in for a hard time.

[Jeff Head]

In addition to the Varyag, which is continually being worked on in the Chinese naval shipyards:

...not too many people realize that the Minsk and the Kieve are sitting in Chinaese shipyards, refitted to the point of being used as naval museums.

Well, apparently both museums have now indicated that they aren't earning enough money as tourist attractions. I wonder what the PLAN will do with those vessels.

They happen to be the same class vessel (the Gorshkov) that the Russians are rebuilding right now into a full deck carrier for the Indian Navy. With the ties that the PRC has to the RUssians, do you suppose they might help do the same to these other two?

Maybe they'll just scrap them, huh?

[Jeff Head]

Tryrannies are known for their miscalculations...problem is, those miscalculations always cost a lot of blood to put back in the bottle.

[Jeff Head]

A democrat elected to the White House in 2008, once the Olympics are over, will make for an extremely dangerous time and situation IMHO.

I would expect to see major moves by Iran, N. Korea...and then China in the midst of it all to test us severely and globally.

We must do all in our power to defeat that possibility.

[Zrob]

Yes, tyrannies cause them, usually desperate to carry them on purpose. In fact, look at the carriers the Japanese had at Midway. They wanted carriers so badly, 3 of the 4 they used were refitted battleships with decks.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

We'd better prepare for the worst.

It's tough staying fit at this age, but I feel as though even old plough horses like me will be needed before we see the end of interesting times ahead.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

I reccommend the Dragon's Fury series as late summer reading.

The author has really got all this covered.

[Jeff Head]

Check out...THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

[hc87]

Great pictures.

Do you think that the Chinese are really going to invest the resources necessary to modernize and deploy two thirty year old hand-me-down Russian carriers? If they are, great. That diverts the resources from place where they could really do some harm, like ASATs, electronic warfare, ASW, Sunburns, Kilos and missile forces, both tactical and strategic.

[finnigan2]

"But they are not going to repair the Varyag. Rather it will serve as a model for constructing their own units."

- I think that the Chinese will repair the carrier, at least to the point that they can take it to sea to use both as a learning platform, a model for an improved design and to train a nucleus of officers and men to staff their own version(s) when they come on line.
As for developing detailed operating procedures and battle plan tactics for carriers, I'm sure that the Chinese are already hard at work stealing all the US manuals in these topics so that their learning curve will be greatly shortened.
I just read the other day that the Chinese have already stolen all the secret electronic blueprints associated with the Aegis class cruisers are are now hard at work building their own copies.

[hc87]

They wanted carriers so badly, 3 of the 4 they used were refitted battleships with decks.

Hiryu and Soryu were designed as carriers and were roughly contemporaries of the Yorktown class. Kaga was a conversion from a fast battleship and Akagi was a conversion from a battle cruiser. Both were contempories of the Lexington class, a similar battlecruiser conversion project.

[hc87]

Agreed. Think of Varyag as the Chinese naval air version of Langley (CV-1).

[Jeff Head]

I cannot say about the two older carriers...I know the Indians (who are not exactly slouches in the area and who have maintained two of their own carriers for some time) are having the Kiev class Gorshkov, refitted to be full deck. The Russians are practically giving away the ship and the physical refit for the money that they bring in on the weapons systsms and the aircraft. So, who knows?

As to the other systems, they are doing all of that too...very, very rapidly. It is astounding the amount of building and activity going on right now in the Chinese naval shipyards...astounding. We cannot ignore it. We do so at our peril.

See the RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA site, particularly the PLAN GROWTH page.

[Jeff Head]

They have built two, which are already at sea...and are rapidly churning our more.

[Kuehn12]

If the assumption that they intend to enter the Varyag into active service then they are profoundly stupid. That ship doesn't even come close to a Nimitz Class Carrier or the new Stealth Carrier being developed in the US. The Varyag would be a training range dummy, and not a worthy opponent for the greatest navy to ever exist, US Navy. I think it will be for only training purposes, the Chinese are a measured people. I think they will use it to learn from while building an a home grown carrier force based on their "jump a generation" philosophy. I think we won't see a Chinese Carrier Group up an running until the middle of the next decade or perhaps as late as 2020.

[Mark Felton]

sounds right.

The Asians do not like to make mistakes.

I do not believe there are any Chinese with the gonads to take charge of a project to build a leap-ahead carrier from scratch using a huge portion of the nations wealth. The risk is too great for them personally.

The Chinese are not risk takers. That is why the US will remain the dominant force in the world. We take risks, big risks, and if we do fail we learn from the failure and move forward. We do not kill the risk-takers, we reward them.

I suggest we make more movies about "The Titanic" and dub them in Chinese for mass marketing in China.

[hc87]

Thanks. Bump for review later.