If Mike Holmes were to win the primary, he would be a one-term Congressman. He would lose the 2008 primary to a conservative.
Nope it doesn't work that way. RINOs are impossible to get rid of once they are elected ESPECIALLY in conservative districts. Every member of the congressional leadership would run in to his defense as an incumbent. Millions would be raised. Bill Thomas who DESPISES John Doolittle (and all conservatives) would turn it into a holy war. The conservative challenger would be chastised, marginalized, and vastly outspent.
It sort of happened in the neighboring district (where I live) when gun-grabbing congressional has-been, Dan Lungren decided to carpet bag into the district to run against the very conservative well-loved local state Senator Rico Oller.
It happens all the time.