Any reliance on probabilities to dispute evolution is deeply flawed. We know of one planet/moon in the universe with life on it. We don’t (yet?) know of any others, but we do know of other planets in the universe, and not just in our solar system. But we haven’t even closely examined the nearest one with any atmosphere to speak of. So how can anyone come up with any real idea of the probability of life happening?
I don't know the exact probability of whether I may grow wings tomorrow either, but I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to know it is not likely to happen, just as it is not likely for matter to just evolve into a person.