[spinestein]

[The waves were bigger than expected, suggesting theoretical models of waves whipped up by hurricanes may have to be revised.]



So the theoretical models about weather and our environment result in a prediction that is found to be inaccurate when real word data is analyzed.

Does this mean that it would be wise to distrust the predictions of theoretical models regarding complex systems such as weather and the environment until such time as genuine data becomes available to analyze?

Just asking.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Right!

[burzum]

Weather reports have become more accurate over time. From what I've heard, a 10 day forecast today is now as accurate as a 5 day forecast 15 years ago. While weather reports are never 100% accurate, their accuracy has increased dramatically over the last 50 years.

I think its important for those in the aviation and seagoing professions to take weather reports very seriously and be conservative on their interpretation. I know that I am very interested in the weather every time I decide to drive into Montana during the winter.

In general, most weather in a non-event. But there are some significant events, such as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or Arctic blasts in Montana for which it is very helpful to be ready. I'm not yet willing to say that weather predictions are useless because we don't yet have all the data. We never will. But they are improving, and continue to improve.