Believe it or not, Iconoclast's facts are essentially correct, it's just his conclusions that are faulty.
He is correct that the war in Iraq offered opportunities for Al Qaeda, both in training and in recruitment. Unfortunately this is where he chooses to end his chain of logic, and I contend that there are much larger considerations.
Why did we "lose" in Vietnam?
Because we decided not to confront the sources of North Vietnam's military capability, and because we chose not to interdict their routes of logistic supply.
Why did Russia lose in Afghanistan?
Because they chose not to confront the US directly over supplying arms and aid to the mujahideen, and they chose not to interdict our supply line through Pakistan.
An army marches on its stomach.
Amatuers address tactics, professionals discuss logistics.
Cut off the guns, bombs and bullets and any insurgency withers on the vine.
Stand one step further back from the front lines, cut off the funding, and all the porous borders on earth will not matter militarily.
Prior to 9/11, terrorist Islam possessed 4 economic centers of gravity.
1. The Afghan Bureau of Pakistan's Inter Service Intelligence Agency.
2. Saudi Arabia's General Intelligence Service, under Prince Turki al-Faisal, under Prince Nayaf, hardline Wahabbist, contesting the western friendly Prince Abdullah for political supremacy of the Kingdom. (Interesting sidebar, the great and friendly Saudi Ambassador to the US, wired into the deepest levels of American politics, is one Prince Bandar, Turki al-Faisal's son.) The Saudi Golden Circle of Twelve falls partly under this classification, partly under the next.
3. The global Islamic charity network, a portion of which knowingly funds terrorist activities, and a portion of which Bin Laden has deliberately infiltrated for the purposes of diverting funds.
4. Iran.
Up until 9/11 Iran was safely hiding behind two extremist and extremely anti-western buffer zones, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Iran was openly funding Hizbollah and Hamas, playing hardball because they could afford to play hardball. Only an idiot would drive on Tehran with 23 unopposed Iraqi divisions threatening our left flank and supply lines.
Saddam facilitated his own demise with every virtue at his disposal.
There are now no Iraqi divisions ready to stream to Tehran's aid.
Iran is now surrounded on all sides, elephant cage antennas along thousands of miles of borders which are porous in two directions, and the Mullahs now are reduced to one single reason supporting a continued hardball approach.
In their minds (and an enemy's perception will always influence his decision making process more than any reality which he does not personally embrace), if Iran can achieve nuclear ignition before the government in Tehran falls, they "win". They win, because it buys them time, and time for terrorists is running out.
There is no superpower that is financially supporting the insurgency in Iraq. The only Ho Chi Minh Trails are in the very countries we are looking for excuses to execute a regime change within Iran and Syria.
We have radical Islam by the wallet, they are on the ropes in the large scale, and this is exemplified with every weakening and failed attack they attempt to execute.
Iraq, by accident or by concious design, is an important part of the overall strategy. Tehran knows this. Riyahd knows this. (This is why Prince Abdullah privately allowed almost a full division of US and UK SOF troops to base out of Ar Ar, Saudi Arabia for the Iraqi invasion, in spite of public statements to the contrary. Ditto Jordan.) Islamabad knows this, Cairo knows this, Damascus knows this, Ankhara knows this, and Amman knows this.
Any temporary benefits Al Qaeda enjoys as a result of the Iraqi invasion, and any honest assessment will admit that a few of these exist, are outweighed by orders of magnitude in the strategic level logistics picture.
The only ones who don't know this seem to be the American Left, the western media, and Iconoclast.
A pity, his analytical and data mining abilities appear to be honed well enough to have been useful in other circumstances.
I agree with your overall perspective. But just looking at the map convinces me that Iraq was by conscious design a linchpin to the WoT. A friendly Iraq isolates not only Iran but Syria, and provides a centrally located base of operations and intel gathering throughout the region. It also replaces our need for the Saudi bases, which has to be counted a plus.