In support of what you're saying, the closer Muslims get to necessary reformation, the stronger the conflict. Your analysis is optimistic. I'm not sure they're anywhere near the point where avoidance clicks in...
When Muslims are blowing up mosques and killing Muslims supposedly in defense of Islam, something very strange is going on psychologically. It suggests a split in the psyche; it suggests a psychosis deeper than Islam in which part of the psyche has in fact split off from Islam and is battling the part that is trying to hang on to Islam. These acts of suicidal violence make more sense as failures of psychic integration than as coherent expressions of Islam, even of militant Islam.