Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)

NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

I'm fairly sure we're in for stormy weather because ants are attempting to invade our home. This began a few hours ago.

Keen observation, Grasshopper...

[Miztiki]

The red core of Emily is now just barely into the GOM. I think that dark little spot is the eye, and that is more than halfway across the YP. So, I'm *guessing* that Miss Emily will take less than the predicted 9 hours to cross the YP.

Any thoughts on this?

[RGVTx]

I don't know who the weather guy is on Channel 5, but he just said hurricane watch extends from Corpus Christi to Tampico, Texas. LOL! I didn't know we were doing a reverse invasion.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 30a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 18, 2005

 
...Emily over Yucatan...expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico
later today...

 
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Cabo Rojo Mexico northward
to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Preparations to
protect life and property should have already been completed.

 
At 8 am...1200 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of
Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border has
been discontinued. 

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
Satellite images and data from Cancun radar indicate that at 8 am
EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located over
the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 88.9
west just northwest of tizimin or about 50 miles...80 km...east-
northeast of Merida Mexico.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. 
This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  Emily
is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this morning.

 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph...160
km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is expected when Emily
moves back over water. 

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  975 mb...28.79 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan
Peninsula will be diminishing during the day today.

 
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.

 
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...21.2 N... 88.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

[RGVTx]

east-northeast of Merida Mexico.

---

Local forecaster, Tim Smith, said last night if Emily passes east of Merida, then south Texas has a greater chance of being in her path.

[RGVTx]

I think you are correct, she's moving fast. Looking at this loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html - it appears the eye is nearing the GOM and she is definately tracking more to the right than the forecast path.

[CindyDawg]

Tampica Texas? lol. I meant for my doors. I don't have screen doors. We have a generator too but I don't think it would carry AC. We are hoping a couple of lights, the refrig and fans.

[Miztiki]

How long do you think it will be before she is in the GOM? According to the 5am discussion, she should not reach the GOM for another 3 hours.

My shot-in-the-dark guess is that she will be in the Gulf within the next 60 minutes as a fairly strong Cat 1.

Entering the Gulf 1-2 hours early in fairly good shape will probably screw up the model forecasts, you think?

[CindyDawg]

She does look like she coming into the GOM

[CindyDawg]

Your prediction may be closer than you thought:')

[NautiNurse]

I'm getting ready to post a new thread updated with GOM links, etc.

[CindyDawg]

Thanks. I appreciate you doing this.

[Miztiki]

Me too!

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part III

[txhurl]

She's starting to look 'promising' to me......