Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Keen observation, Grasshopper...
The red core of Emily is now just barely into the GOM. I think that dark little spot is the eye, and that is more than halfway across the YP. So, I'm *guessing* that Miss Emily will take less than the predicted 9 hours to cross the YP.
Any thoughts on this?
I don't know who the weather guy is on Channel 5, but he just said hurricane watch extends from Corpus Christi to Tampico, Texas. LOL! I didn't know we were doing a reverse invasion.
...Emily over Yucatan...expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico later today...
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Cabo Rojo Mexico northward to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed.
At 8 am...1200 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border has been discontinued.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Satellite images and data from Cancun radar indicate that at 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located over the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 88.9 west just northwest of tizimin or about 50 miles...80 km...east- northeast of Merida Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Emily is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this morning.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is expected when Emily moves back over water.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be diminishing during the day today.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...21.2 N... 88.9 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
east-northeast of Merida Mexico.
I think you are correct, she's moving fast. Looking at this loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html - it appears the eye is nearing the GOM and she is definately tracking more to the right than the forecast path.
Tampica Texas? lol. I meant for my doors. I don't have screen doors. We have a generator too but I don't think it would carry AC. We are hoping a couple of lights, the refrig and fans.
How long do you think it will be before she is in the GOM? According to the 5am discussion, she should not reach the GOM for another 3 hours.
My shot-in-the-dark guess is that she will be in the Gulf within the next 60 minutes as a fairly strong Cat 1.
Entering the Gulf 1-2 hours early in fairly good shape will probably screw up the model forecasts, you think?
She does look like she coming into the GOM
Your prediction may be closer than you thought:')
I'm getting ready to post a new thread updated with GOM links, etc.
Thanks. I appreciate you doing this.
Me too!
She's starting to look 'promising' to me......
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