Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Got it.
Emily has continued to strengthen this afternoon. At about 17z...an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates that the central pressure has fallen to 937 mb...with 700 mb flight-level winds as high as 151 kt in the northeastern quadrant. This supports the initial intensity of 135 kt. There is a possibility that Emily has gotten stronger since the aircraft left the storm. However... the satellite signature does not yet support stronger winds...so any further increase in the intital winds will wait for the next aircraft scheduled near 00z.
The initial motion remains 290/16. Other than that...there is no change in the forecast philosophy. Emily is south and southwest of a deep layer ridge extending from the Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Large-scale models agree this ridge should build slowly westward...with perhaps a weakness remaining over eastern Texas as a shortwave trough moves through the north central U.S. Emily should continue west-northwestward for 36-48 hr...which should take the center near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. After that...the exact track depends on how much weakness there is in the ridge over Texas. Model guidance has not changed much since the last set of runs...except for the UKMET...which is shifted to the north and is now the right outlier. The official forecast is between the UKMET and the NOGAPS in best agreement with GUNS...and lies close to the right edge of the envelope of guidance. The new track is an update of the previous track through 36 hr...then shifted a little southward thereafter.
The intensity forecast is somewhat problematic. The SHIPS model has 20 kt of shear affecting Emily from which it forecasts weakening... but this shear is not apparent in satellite imagery or satellite- derived winds from CIMSS. A recent trmm overpass showed no evidence of an outer eyewall...although there was some outer banding that could soon wrap up into an outer eyewall. Complicating matters further...the SHIPS model shows a maximum potential intensity of 155-160 kt...while maximum potential intensities from cola are closer to 135 kt. The intensity forecast follows the scenario that the maximum winds will oscillate around 135 kt as the hurricane GOES through internal cycles. However...it would not be a surprise if Emily became a category five hurricane for some part of the next 24 hr. Emily should weaken over Yucatan...but still be a major hurricane over the western Gulf of Mexico.
12 ft seas radii were greatly revised in the southeastern quadrant based on observations from NOAA buoy 42058. The initial wind radii were somewhat revised based on aircraft data.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/2100z 16.8n 78.8w 135 kt 12hr VT 17/0600z 17.7n 81.2w 135 kt 24hr VT 17/1800z 19.1n 84.4w 135 kt 36hr VT 18/0600z 20.4n 87.7w 125 kt...inland 48hr VT 18/1800z 21.6n 90.7w 100 kt...over water 72hr VT 19/1800z 23.5n 96.0w 105 kt 96hr VT 20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w 65 kt...inland 120hr VT 21/1800z 26.0n 104.5w 20 kt...inland dissipating
That's part of our intense border security measures and it will keep the storm south of the river, just like it stops the illegals.
That's quite different. My comfort level just went way down.
They are forecasting Miss Emily to emerge from the Yucatan a Cat 3.
Oh, wonderful. It emerges as a major hurricane. I hope I bookmarked that site where you buy the plywood clips. Heck, I'd better just go to Home Depot down the street and see if they have them.
I was hoping the 18z GFS might give some new clues, I guess not. ;-)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif
Go now. By the time you realize you need them, they'll be out of stock along with plywood, batteries, generators, etc.
Ping to self.
18z NOGAPS is further north, first hit very close to Cancun... comes in right around TX/MX border.
Gilbert photos Two amazing pics.
Actually, a bit south of the border... a good 100 mile shift from the last run though.
definitely looks strong....got some more blow-up on the south end.
Following NHC track pretty darn well now.
Hopefully that will continue so it will miss Texas. Pray for a strong high.
Don't want to talk to us, eh? ;o)
lol...yeah, that isn't going to help any since that is much too far south.
I'm busy praying for that ridge to appear. God has my undivided attention.
I'm really curious about my previous question:
Emily is a small but powerful hurricane right now. Since she won't encounter any resistance and will be above very hot waters, is there a possibility or a probability that she will grow larger in size? What factors would be necessary for that to happen? A slower forward motion?
Anybody know?
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