Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
I caught the last half of that and need to tape the first half.
It was a little amusing to see the documentary on the weather bureau chief debunk his claims about warning people about the storm only to have this next documentary repeat the debunked story about 20 minutes later.
I just set up the Tivo to record it. They are replaying it later tonite.
Yeah, I agree... I changed the channel, enough historical Hurricane info for me today, now back to the current one. ;-)
Hey, may I come along too? I miss Fall in PA......;^(
One of the tragic drowning deaths in the horrible 28" deluge of T.S. Alicia in '01 in Houston was a young lady who took the elevator down to the parking garage in her downtown office building, unaware that the garage had 15' of water in it. When the elevator doors opened, she was inundated and drowned. We've had some very big rains in Houston this weekend, so I hope we don't get much from Emily.
My husband grew up in Winston-Salem - we lived in Raleigh/Durham the first 12 years of our marriage.. we miss it sometimes but I really love Texas!! laugh..
Just noticed the latest forcasts have it going VERY far west of us... oh well we'll probably have to DRIVE to catch any rain.. laugh...
That was Allison , not Alicia.
Does this mean I don't lose my awesome Hurricane Shutters?
lol, very nice. :)
Bout time for a new update isn't it?
the more, the merrier...
gettin' close...
...Emily moving into the western Caribbean as a dangerous category four hurricane... ...New hurricane watches and warnings issued...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche... including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Additionally... the Hurricane Watch has been extended westward and is now in effect from west of Cabo Catoche on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane warnings are now in effect for Jamaica... all of the Cayman Islands.... and the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche... including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
At 11 PM EDT...the government of Belize has changed the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Sunday.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...and the southern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 80.3 west or about 140 miles... 220 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 480 miles... 770 km...east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ... 30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track... the center of Emily will continue moving away from Jamaica overnight tonight and will be near Grand Cayman early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected... and Emily could become a category five hurricane at times... during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is near 930 mb...27.46 inches.
Above normal tides... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves... are possible along the south coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible across the Cayman Islands with additional 2 to 4 inches over western Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southeastern Cuba. Storm total amounts of 5 to 8 inches are possible over the Yucatan Peninsula with local maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 80.3 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 930 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Yup. Picked up some limbs, cut some grass...just got back from having a TexMex dinner. (Not like you get in Texas but, close)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 170304
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
EMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. HOWEVER... AN
AIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
FALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED
931 MB. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT
135 KT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM
TAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING
OBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS
OVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16. THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED
TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...
AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM
MOTION VERY WELL. IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT
THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS STILL TO SOON...
HOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND
WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.5N 80.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.5N 82.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.8N 85.8W 135 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 95 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 92.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 97.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
Doubtful that the circulation would make it over the mountains of Mexico intact. I also think it will come in over S. TX still, so I throw out the general idea. ;-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
