[PAR35]

I'm still saying $28 a barrel for oil when the speculators start to bail. They can only hold the price artificially high for so long.

[RayChuang88]

I wouldn't be surprised that oil prices will drop to US$37 to US$39 per barrel within a year because Federal regulators will have nabbed a couple of Americans trying to illegally speculate on oil (read: George Soros).

[SAJ]

You won't see $28/bbl again in your lifetime, bar a worldwide depression or the absolute collapse of Islam. You can figure the odds on either of those occurrences at your leisure. Like it or not, demand growth is and will continue to outstrip effective supply growth, by which term the industry really means ''guaranteed'' supply.

No one is worried about running out of crude or product this winter; the focus is next year (rightly or wrongly).

In plain English, the energy mkts are running on 100-octane fear, right now. Look at NG tonight -- up 25-30 cents/MMBTU on absolutely nothing but a 15-25 mile northward shift in the predicted course of Emily. What nonsense; the chaps predicting Emily's course are the very same ones who can't tell you with any reliability whether or not it will rain in your town next Tuesday.

However, fear is fear, and -- from a trading standpoint -- said emotion, no matter how irrational as to hard fact, must be respected by anyone trading in a fear-driven mkt.

[EERinOK]

My very humble opinion is:

Floor at $28, coming out at an average of $35 as the speculators bail in numbers around $50, this time next year.

That floor might come sooner than later too. Watch Toronto exchange.

Even with price looking to head south, there are still alot of good bets in the "patch".