It was determined last summer after the NBC report that all Zawahiri tapes since 1998 have been followed by attacks within 90 days (with the possible exception of one or two).
The average span between tape and attack is much less than that. It may have been a 30-45 day average, but it was distorted by the 2 attempted assassinations of Musharraf, which took place 3 months or so afterwards. I seem to remember the majority were weeks and sometimes days.
(This is probably why the Israeli security guy on Fox in late June/early July made the 90-day prediction - - last Zawahiri tape was June 17. He didn't pull that number out of the air).
Fox News seriously needs to screen their "experts" better.
Most of them are top-notch, but a sizable minority are not. Fox has more "questionable" guests (to be diplomatic) than all the other networks (cable and broadcast) put together.
08/05/1998 First tape released.
08/06/1998 Next day over 200 killed and thousands injured in Kenya and Tanzania
09/20/2000 3 weeks later the USS Cole is attacked
10/04/2001 Congressional and media Anthrax attacks unfolding (2nd wave of 9/11)
10/07/2001 6 weeks later Rockaway crash; retaliation for Afghanistan threatened
11/07/2001 2 days after "Dawn" nuclear retaliatory threat - - "Dragonfire" scare
04/17/2002 3 weeks later 14 die in Karachi bombing targeting French officers
10/09/2002 3 days later more than 200 people die in the Bali nightclub bombing
05/23/2003 2 weeks later 4 killed 31 German peacekeepers wounded in Kabul attack
08/03/2003 Two days later the Jakarta Marriott is bombed
09/10/2003 female Iraqi Governing Council member Hashimi assassinated on 9/20
09/29/2003 11 weeks later, two attempts against Musharraf;
12/19/2003 Two days later, America goes to "orange alert"
02/21/2004 Three weeks later the Madrid bombing is worst terror attack on Europe
03/25/2004 Ten days later the first coordinated nationwide Iraqi uprising begins
06/11/2004 One month later, an operation against NYC/NJ/DC targets is detected
9/9/2004 and 10/2/04 Al-Zawahiri - Taba (Sinai Peninsula Resorts) attacks (first possible direct AQ attack on Israelis) on 10/8
10/28-29/2004 Amir the American and OBL Tapes – No associated attacks.
11/29/2004 Al-Zawahiri tape– No apparent associated attacks
02/01/2005 Al-Zawahiri Internet audio – No apparent attack
02/20/05 Videotape, al-Zawahiri argues that the U.S.'s "new crusade is doomed to fail," and that it will lead to "tens of thousands of fallen victims and the destruction of your economy." NO apparent associated attacks
06/05 Al-Zawahiri video tape – Singles out Egypt and Saudi Arabia in addition to condemning US & allied action in Iraq and Afghanistan
7/7/05 London bombing attacks
7/14/05 Failed second London Attacks
7/23/05 A rapid series of explosions at an Egyptian Red Sea resort, devastated a luxury hotel and a coffee shop and killed at least 88.
8/3/05 Al-Zawahiri video tape warning of more attacks in London and on US allies in Europe. Threatens US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and reminds Americans 9/11 was the opening battle.
"Fox has more "questionable" guests (to be diplomatic) than all the other networks (cable and broadcast) put together."
Fox is the tabloid of journalism. It's a mouthpiece for leftist neocons.