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Al-Zawahiri's Latest: Al-Qaeda's Attempted Deception Continues

Today, Ayman al-Zawahiri released a new videotape in which he blames Tony Blair for the recent attacks on London, and warns that there are more to come. He also has a message for the American people, which CNN describes:

Zawahiri reminded the United States and its allies of the "hudna" (truce) that bin Laden offered last year in return for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Muslim lands. "Didn't Osama bin Laden tell you that you would never dream of peace until we actually live it in Palestine and before all foreign forces withdraw from the Land of Mohammed? Instead (of accepting the truce), you spilled rivers of blood in our countries, and we exploded volcanoes of anger in your countries."

Zawahiri's reference to the offered hudna is part of a sustained effort by al-Qaeda to deceive Westerners into believing that the terrorist group can be bargained with, and that perhaps its demands can be satisfied. Bin Laden first put forward the possibility of peace with the West in April 2004, when in the wake of the 3/11 atrocities in Spain he offered a truce to countries that withdrew their forces from Iraq. Then in the dramatic videotape that bin Laden released just before the 2004 election, he further implied that peace with al-Qaeda was possible. He argued, "We fight you because we are free men who don't sleep under oppression. We want to restore freedom to our Nation and just as you lay waste to our Nation, so shall we lay waste to yours." In telling Americans that the way out of the conflict with al-Qaeda was to "look for its [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again," bin Laden put his finger on some issues that he believed would have traction in the West -- specifically, the notion that selling Israel up the river and adopting a policy of non-intervention in the Middle East would guarantee us security. This attempted deception continued in a November 29, 2004 videotape that al-Zawahiri released to al-Jazeera and in another videotape released on February 20, 2005. And now, al-Qaeda has taken another step along the same path today.

I've written three previous pieces that may help to shed light on al-Qaeda's strategy:

*"Bin Laden's Rhetorical Gambit" analyzes how bin Laden first offered the possibility of peace with the West in April 2004 and continued this attepted deception in his pre-election video. It also shows that, even prior to bin Laden's October 2004 video, some Westerners had already been seeking negotiation with, and appeasement of, al-Qaeda.

*"Osama's Big Lie" shows that al-Zawahiri continued this appeal to appeasement-minded Westerners in his November 2004 video, in which he stated, "You must choose between two ways of dealing with Muslims -- either on the basis of respect and mutual interests, or treating them as if they were legitimate spoils, pillaged lands, and permissible sacrilege. This is your problem, and you have to make your own choice." This article also comprehensively refutes the view that we can have peace with al-Qaeda by fleshing out their agenda -- namely, re-establishment of the caliphate, an Islamic super-state primed for perpetual war with the West.

*Finally, in a Counterterrorism Blog post, I analyzed how al-Zawahiri continued his appeal to certain factions in the West in a February 2005 videotape. In that video, Zawahiri stated, "Real security is based on mutual cooperation with the Islamic nation on the basis of mutual respect and the stopping of aggression."
Posted by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at 01:17 PM | Permalink
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/08/alzawahiris_lat.html#more