Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Twenty-Eight

[Godzilla]

Jabir said: "The Prophet entered Mecca on the Day of victory wearing a black turban and he loosened its two ends between his shoulders."

Well we have a new 'official' king in SA. However, he has likely been the move since the former's stroke. Regime change is potential for terror. And Zwarhiri did mention something about US taking the oil as well as threatening SA in the June video.

[Godzilla]

I'm afraid this is going to be a gut wrenching month (AUG) for this country because I'm pretty convinced that if AQ is gonna do something catastrophic it will be during this significant time frame.

I am a little un-nerved by the recent Zwarhiri video along with the current activity, and agree we'd better fasten our seat belts for this month. But I'm also pondering this line - Support for Iraq is falling and the election cycle is a year away. Conduct a Madrid/London style attack over more cities to keep momentum going for them, then prior to the election do the unthinkable (if they have the capability). Granted there are plenty of twists, but if they do the unthinkable now, GW will push the button and portions of Iran will be rubble (don't need nukes to do it) as well as 'refuges' in Pakistan - especially if Musharrif doesn't get off his duff. This would again swing the dynamics back in our favor.

One other parting thought. With our dependence upon foreign oil (SA), a major strike or action to deny us that oil would have a major economic impact on us - as is a stated target of AQ.

[Oorang]

That's interesting SB407, thanks for passing it along.

____________

Thanks to all of you for the pings. Sounds like things are indeed coming to a head. Time to batten down the hatches, perhaps.

Also time for me quit doing chores and catch up on TM.

[Godzilla]

Interesting analysis from Laura Mansfield here: http://www.lauramansfield.com/psk/DesktopDefault.aspx

Yes, very much so.

[Oorang]

Excellent find Velveeta. Most interesting.

[Velveeta]

Crosspost to Calpernia's thread

New tape from Ayman Zawahiri released on Al Jazeera this morning
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1456811/posts?page=2#2

[Velveeta]

Al-Zawahiri's Latest: Al-Qaeda's Attempted Deception Continues

Today, Ayman al-Zawahiri released a new videotape in which he blames Tony Blair for the recent attacks on London, and warns that there are more to come. He also has a message for the American people, which CNN describes:

Zawahiri reminded the United States and its allies of the "hudna" (truce) that bin Laden offered last year in return for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Muslim lands. "Didn't Osama bin Laden tell you that you would never dream of peace until we actually live it in Palestine and before all foreign forces withdraw from the Land of Mohammed? Instead (of accepting the truce), you spilled rivers of blood in our countries, and we exploded volcanoes of anger in your countries."

Zawahiri's reference to the offered hudna is part of a sustained effort by al-Qaeda to deceive Westerners into believing that the terrorist group can be bargained with, and that perhaps its demands can be satisfied. Bin Laden first put forward the possibility of peace with the West in April 2004, when in the wake of the 3/11 atrocities in Spain he offered a truce to countries that withdrew their forces from Iraq. Then in the dramatic videotape that bin Laden released just before the 2004 election, he further implied that peace with al-Qaeda was possible. He argued, "We fight you because we are free men who don't sleep under oppression. We want to restore freedom to our Nation and just as you lay waste to our Nation, so shall we lay waste to yours." In telling Americans that the way out of the conflict with al-Qaeda was to "look for its [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again," bin Laden put his finger on some issues that he believed would have traction in the West -- specifically, the notion that selling Israel up the river and adopting a policy of non-intervention in the Middle East would guarantee us security. This attempted deception continued in a November 29, 2004 videotape that al-Zawahiri released to al-Jazeera and in another videotape released on February 20, 2005. And now, al-Qaeda has taken another step along the same path today.

I've written three previous pieces that may help to shed light on al-Qaeda's strategy:

*"Bin Laden's Rhetorical Gambit" analyzes how bin Laden first offered the possibility of peace with the West in April 2004 and continued this attepted deception in his pre-election video. It also shows that, even prior to bin Laden's October 2004 video, some Westerners had already been seeking negotiation with, and appeasement of, al-Qaeda.

*"Osama's Big Lie" shows that al-Zawahiri continued this appeal to appeasement-minded Westerners in his November 2004 video, in which he stated, "You must choose between two ways of dealing with Muslims -- either on the basis of respect and mutual interests, or treating them as if they were legitimate spoils, pillaged lands, and permissible sacrilege. This is your problem, and you have to make your own choice." This article also comprehensively refutes the view that we can have peace with al-Qaeda by fleshing out their agenda -- namely, re-establishment of the caliphate, an Islamic super-state primed for perpetual war with the West.

*Finally, in a Counterterrorism Blog post, I analyzed how al-Zawahiri continued his appeal to certain factions in the West in a February 2005 videotape. In that video, Zawahiri stated, "Real security is based on mutual cooperation with the Islamic nation on the basis of mutual respect and the stopping of aggression."
Posted by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at 01:17 PM | Permalink
http://counterterror.typepad.com/the_counterterrorism_blog/2005/08/alzawahiris_lat.html#more

[Oorang]

Thanks for digging that up ffnj.

[Oorang]

Thanks for posting those photos. Every bit of info helps in the attempt to connect the dots.

[appalachian_dweller]

Notice the reference to Viet Nam? These punks are taking queues from our Lame Stream TRATIOROUS Media.


We could be in for a bumpy ride folks.

[nwctwx]

The black turban thing is definately interesting... there must be a reason for it, nothing these guys seem to do is without some sort of symbolism.

[Velveeta]

Man detained for bomb threat at Buckley

By Rocky Mountain News
August 4, 2005

Security forces at Buckley Air Force Base are detaining a man who drove up to the base's Mississippi Gate at 7:45 a.m. and told guards he had two bombs in his vehicle.

Emergency and security personnel have isolated the vehicle for search. The Mississippi Gate is closed and all base traffic is advised to use the Sixth Avenue gate.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/state/article/0,1299,DRMN_21_3977503,00.html

[nwctwx]

I don't know what to think anymore... Originally, I was trying to play down the dates and time period upcoming, but like late 2003... events all seem to be falling into place. Of course, nothing happened in late 2003/early 2004, so that time might not have really meant anything either.

I will say that as soon as I heard Zawahri had a new message, my thoughts became more open once again. There are now numerous signs that the upcoming days/weeks could be a real target for al Qaida.

[freeperfromnj]

From the Google image bank the only photos showing Zawahiri wearing a black turban occur i.e. when he's threatening retaliation against the US (war) for the arrest of Egyptian Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman in connection with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing.

Definitely not a good sign.

[nwctwx]

Bin Laden, the leader of the al-Qaida terror network, was shown but did not speak and was alongside his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, who said on the tape that the September 11 attacks were a "great victory".

However, the TV station said that this recording was made months before the attack, but did not explain how it reached that conclusion.

Link

[nwctwx]

The image is used in several articles, but it appears the only time I can find him wearing that black turban is right around (before/after?) 9/11. The rest are from the same video, just re-used.

[freeperfromnj]

That black turban has me creeped out. Something evil on its way. Hope we can stop it.

[appalachian_dweller]

Good catch on the change in turban color. I didn't pick up on it. If the only other time he's worn a black turban is around the 9/11/01 attacks then I would agree with ffnj - something evil is on the way.

I really hope we are wrong on this. Oh, how I hope we are wrong.