I freely admit to being fascinated with these storms and how the forecast changes, often several times daily.
We can all make bold forecasts today, and we can all make forecasts tomorrow, but the chances of them being identical are not very likely if we're looking at any new observational data.
Yesterday, this was a Pensacola/Panama City storm. Today, it's a New Orleans/Mobile storm. Tomorrow it could be a Corpus Christi storm.
The only thing we know for sure is that it's going to be a Jamaica storm tomorrow.
Heck, maybe we'll be lucky and this ends being a Mexico storm.
I'm the same way.
Lots of good points. NHC has to play it conservative, and people SHOULD listen to them first and foremost. There have been signs since this formed that a FL hit was unlikely, but since "slow and steady" is the best option when millions of people are reading a forecast, I can understand skepticism.
Five day forecasts are often extremely unreliable, and only a general outlook should be formulated when viewing them. Once it gets into the GOM, we will have a much better idea. These things do pull some odd stuff from time to time. The U.S. has also been relatively lucky when it comes to Cat 4-5 storms over the past decade or so. Charley was a very strong cyclone, but the worst was felt in a very small area. The GOM loves to produce big canes, and it's been a while since one hit land with full fury. If nothing else, it could be quite detrimental to our energy needs.