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"Well, China's economic growth will come to an abrupt halt if trade is cut off by a war."

IMHO, your observation is pretty much on target. It makes no sense for either China nor the U.S. to risk nuclear confrontation over Taiwan in the immediate future. There are responsible people on both sides who understand the concept of a Pyrrhic victory. Again IMHO, it would serve China much better to continue a slow expansion of its sphere of influence.

Of course, the question remains: What is our strategy?

A confrontation with China in the Straits of Formosa bodes ill for China, Taiwan, and the United States. If they attack Taiwan we will defend it with our Naval Forces. The attack would start off conventional. There is a high probability that the Chinese would sink a US aircraft carrier. Those vessels have over 5000 US sailors. At that point this is war and would quickly escalate to tactical nukes which means good bye Chinese Navy, and our Navy in the Western Pacific At this point the Chinese military and political structure will face a major decision. Do they escalate this to a Nuclear exchange with the United States. If they do we will lose major cities in the United States. Millions of our people will be killed. The United States would then unleash some of its sea based missiles from its Trident Subs. They would take out all the major political power structures and the major cities of China. The Chinese goal is domination of the Far East. They do not want to be destroyed.

Each side must be very careful. They will not attack Taiwan if they think we will defend it. The quickest way to war with the Chinese is to let them think we are not firm in our resolve to defend Taiwan. This would not happen under a George Bush. A President Hillary Clinton or someone like her is what they are waiting for!

Your observations make sense to me too, V.

The awakening Chinese Dragon is angry over the colonial exploitation and degradation of China, though they certainly resulted as much from Chinese decadence (are you paying attention, Europe and Leftist America?) as from Western expansion. I think the Chinese interest in creating a colonial pied a terre in Long Beach was motivated by the urge for revenge as much as anything else.

However, such obvious constrasts as Hong Kong vs. mainland China and North vs. South Korea have not been lost on the Chinese leadership, and they have shown a remarkable pragmatism, which is both refreshing and alarming.

I think the U.S. and China will be competitors for a long time, but, if both nations remain stable, pragmatism could keep the competition peaceful, and perhaps cooperative.

India, whose economy is growing, whose population will surpass China's within the near future, and which is China's neighbor and thus competitor for resources, probably poses a greater threat to China.

And Russia, with a decreasing population and vast natural resources just across the Chinese border, is probably threatened most by the awakening Dragon.