Agree with your post, and that bit about Paulus going back to the beach, possibly, and finding N not there. But. He is a judge and presumably, no dope, and I would think if this innocent scenario were true, once it was public that N was missing, Paulus would have immediately marched Joran and the brothers to the LE and told all he knew. Girl, drunk, left at beach by my son, foolishly. I went back to check, but she was gone. I assumed she'd returned to her hotel. Period. That would have been embarrassing, but they'd have all been off the hook.
There could have been a lot of things that figured into his decision. Including the hope that she would appear. I suspect, however, he was pretty angry with Joran if it played out in the manner I suggest. And/or, it is also possible, as you know, we all know men who would say to their son "Hey, well you should have been home, and we won't tell your Mom. But Hehehe, did you have a good time, son? Wink wink? " Those men are everywhere, hoping for their son's "right of passage."
And, as I said, and as many of us might have observed in our travels, teens on these trips (Spring break, etc.) often spend the night on the beach because of drinking, or just because they want to have done so. In the morning I have often seen them come staggering back, looking pretty rough, to the motels. Even Natalee's roommates were not alarmed when she was not in her room and figured she flopped in another room or something. Kids just don't think sometimes.
Dad's should, but, you know, not always. I bet if Mrs. VDS had been home, as she seems more the "in charge, do it right" type, Joran would have been taken right down to the police - and then given punishment for breaking the rules.
If he is not at all responsible look what his sneaking out has caused his family, and probably his plans for college, etc.
Of course, if he is there is no reason he should not pay the highest price of their judicial system. I just hope that the case can be solved "without a reasonable doubt," for all concerned.