The estimates tend to the high side when policy decisions are on the table but most folk without insurance are wiser shoppers than those who simply hand over a card.
Forcing everyone to participate will only serve to raise the demand for services since the holders of policies will act as though they are deserving of a tangible reward for having parted with their money and the ERs will still be crowded, there will still be tons of unpaid bills (deductibles) and the mortality tables will remain much the same.
Dear Old Professor,
"Forcing everyone to participate will only serve to raise the demand for services since the holders of policies will act as though they are deserving of a tangible reward for having parted with their money and the ERs will still be crowded, there will still be tons of unpaid bills (deductibles) and the mortality tables will remain much the same."
It may be that if all the uninsured were to become insured, and if they were required to pay their own premiums, that their demand for healthcare would exceed the value of the premiums that they paid. If that's the case, then the problem becomes an underwriting problem, and a plan design problem.
However, right now, the problem is that the rest of us are paying for their healthcare, and it appears that in Massachusetts, they are not required to make any of their own contribution to that healthcare at all.
Although I don't know of any studies that bear out the assertion, I also think that it is likely that folks who have insurance to go to the family doctor when they have a serious, but non-emergent, health problem may be more likely to go to the family doctor, rather than the emergency room at the local hospital. Receiving basic healthcare at the emergency room is a rather expensive way to do things. An individual's use of healthcare could increase significantly, without spending additional money for it, if that individual merely sought out healthcare in a more normal fashion.
It's at least worth a try to attempt to get more folks insured, and using healthcare resources without routine resort to hospital emergency rooms.
sitetest
I agree with your premise, if they have traditional health care plans with a $10 copay for all doctor's visits. However, if they choose to purchase a much less expensive "high deductible" health plan, where the patient pays for his/her first $1,000 of health care per year, then I don't think we'd see an increase in demand. Actually, if more people would choose these plans, then we'd actually see a decrease in overall demand...we would move back in the direction of how health care was pre Medicare.