Check this out; I think the freeper makes some good points. Let me know what you think. Thank for the ping, peach.
It is a great analysis. It seems to follow the logic we were discussing at lunch. A couple of points, with the bold excerpts from the referenced post:
- It doesn't make ANY difference if 48 other Republicans want to pull the nuclear trigger, if the seven vote against it. It doesn't make ANY difference if 38 other Democrats think the situation is "extraordinary" and try to filibuster, if the seven democrats vote to invoke cloture.
These two points are critical but always existed.
-
At the moment, absolutely NO judge is in a worse state than they were before. The 7 republicans have not offered any votes AGAINST the candidates, nor have they agreed to SUPPORT a filibuster. Three candidates are getting votes who weren't before, and we didn't have to invoke the nuclear option.
This is what we discussed this morning. I agree.
- It is conjecture from the earlier post that the moderate Democrats did not want to vote for filibuster, but needed cover (the agreement). But it is certainly possible. It's just as possible, however, that the 7 Repubs would never have voted for the constitutional option. What is clear is that the pressure is all on the Democrats now to not force the issue through continued filibusters, becasue if they do, then the 7 Repubs will be in a difficult position to not support the nuclear option. Before the agreement, they could easily have voted against it. The signatories to the agreement will have to vote for cloture unless they can substantiate extraordinary circumstances clearly different from the three principal judges we have been discussing.
All in all, I can not find any downside to the Republicans at this point.