[ricks_place]

Group of three probable filibuster defections.

Senator McCain(RINO-AZ)
Senator Chafee(RINO-RI)
Senator Snowe(RINO-ME)

Group of seven possible filibuster defections.(only one darn Dem).

Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)
John Warner (R-Va.)
Arlen Specter (R-Pa.)
Susan Collins (R-Maine)
Mike DeWine (R-Ohio)
Gordon Smith (R-Ore.)
Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)

[watsonfellow]

I think we'll be fine.

Collins and Warner can defect and we will still win.

I think we'll hold everyone but Collins, which will mean that we win.

[Busywhiskers]

Smith of Oregon didn't sound like a defector in his speech this morning.

[Ron in Acreage]

Once again the liberal democrats are relying on an uninformed uneducated public to believe their lies about the senate rules. They are trying to equate senate "rules" and the constitution. These so called rules can be changed every time a new senate convenes or any day of the week for that matter. Yet they are pushing the lie that we are changing the constitution. You can fool some of the people...............

[RetSignman]

I am not happy to see Lindsey Graham of my state on that list but if he doesn't change his opinion I can change my opinion come the next election.

On the matter of the debate before the Senate, if I was a liberal democrat, I would be trying to find a way to drop opposition to the current judges under debate and live to fight another time, like when there is a Supreme Court vacancy. I can't think of a way they can find a face saving way they could accomplish this, but I'll bet it is being considered by some from their side of aisle.

[Sonny M]

Holy Crap????

Senator Hagel is not on that list but Senator Nelson is.

If anyone here ever believed in Senator Nelson, this is your wake up call.

He's a rat whos trying to help his rat party out.

I just gained, a wee bit more respect for Senator Hagel.....if he really isn't part of this crew.

[harpo11]

I guess these senators care more about being friends with the obstructor leftists than they do the people who got them into their precious senate seat. I think I would remember that come next election.

[WOSG]

Gordon Smith was quoted on NPR making comments supportive of Frist.

Sounds like the Liberals are grasping at straws.
And Frist wouldnt press the button if he doesnt have the votes --- barring a "Voinovich"-type problem (a la Bolton nomination).

I cant imagine Graham, Warner and Smith defecting.
Spectre and Collins possible loose cannons, but as Judiciary chairman, even Specter has a stake in the up-or-down votes.

So it looks like a 52-48 vote to sustain the Frist up-or-down vote.

[JLS]

Well negotiating and bolting are to different things. My take after the article is:

1. Graham is solid. If he sued the Senate over such filibusters, he is voting to change the rules. But that does not make negotiating the wrong thing to do.

2. Warner, I think vote for the rules change. He is from such a red state. But I am less sure on him.

3. Spector, I think votes for the rules change too. Surely he did not get the chairmanship without a firm commitment on this vote that everyone knew was coming?

4. Collins, I think she will vote for the rules change too. Armed Services is a big committee chair. I think she will not want to slap in the face the people who got her that.

5. Smith, is solidly in like in my opinion Graham is. As other said, he said so yesterday or today.

6. DeWine, I think he vote for the rule change too.

6. B. Nelson, will vote for cloture but not the rule change if the GOP has the votes. No sense in him making his caucus mad at him unless his home state polling says he must for reelection purposes.

So that leaves room for two surprises or Collins and Warner surprising me and defecting.

[tucker_is_in_texas]

Here is my take on each of these Senators vote:

Group of seven possible filibuster defections.(only one darn Dem).

Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) - loyal to McCain, but not foolish enough to go down bucking the voters in SC. He will attempt to structure a deal, but without either a commitment to vote for all filibustered nominee's, or concurrence from the Rep leaders, he will vote for the Byrd option to bar filibuster of judges.

John Warner (R-Va.) If needed he will vote to bar filibusters of judges, but, he would love to not alter the "Genteel" nature of the Senate harmony.

Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) - Would love to vote against his party leaders, but he knows he would lose his coveted Chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee, so if needed he will vote to bar filibuster of judges.

Susan Collins (R-Maine) - This one is hard to call if she is the final determinate vote. But she wants a leadership positon in the Senate, so I'd guess if she can vote against he party without being the deciding vote she probably will, if she would give the Dems a win, I'd guess she would vote for with the Rep's.

Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) - Wants for not have to vote, but if he must he will vote with the Rep's.

Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) - MSM needs to learn to read his speech, he is with the Rep's no matter what.

Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) - It is really funny that this is the only Dem mentioned. There as 4 or more other Dem's from RED states that like DeWine, do not want to vote. They will out alot of pressure on the Dem leaders to "stand down" on these filibustered judges. They will try to spin it as an effort to save the filibuster for SCOUS judges, but the real reason will be the do not wish to cut their own throats Dems today, or give the Reps in their states a butcher knife to cut each Senator to pieces in 2006.

Thats my take of the issue. Feedback anyone?