It appears to me that the GOP is standing firm on demanding that every judge get a vote on the floor.
As to your question, it's not certain that it will come to the nuke option. The Dems now recognize they're hanging over the cliff like Wily Coyote.
Their only option may be to try to preserve their filibuster rights for a SCOTUS nominee. I.e., they won't invoke a filibuster on these appeals court nominees...thus Bush's judges will be approved. And if they don't invoke the filibuster, the pubbies can't invoke the nuke option.
BUT, Dems have to know they'll really be playing with fire if they try to filibuster a SCOTUS nominee. I don't think they could muster the 40 votes in their caucus for that. Bottom line: the Dems are going to lose and lose badly, whether the nuke option goes through or not.
Repeating what you said:
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Is the Nuclear option going to be a go or what?
It appears to me that the GOP is standing firm on demanding that every judge get a vote on the floor.
As to your question, it's not certain that it will come to the nuke option. The Dems now recognize they're hanging over the cliff like Wily Coyote.
Their only option may be to try to preserve their filibuster rights for a SCOTUS nominee. I.e., they won't invoke a filibuster on these appeals court nominees...thus Bush's judges will be approved. And if they don't invoke the filibuster, the pubbies can't invoke the nuke option.
BUT, Dems have to know they'll really be playing with fire if they try to filibuster a SCOTUS nominee. I don't think they could muster the 40 votes in their caucus for that. Bottom line: the Dems are going to lose and lose badly, whether the nuke option goes through or not.
I couldn't stick around either so thanks for the summary. PUBBIES WIN - DEMS LOSE. Works for me.
That's also my take:
Filibuster Anticlimax?
For months now the battle over judicial nominations has been one of maneuver rather than engagement. Republicans and their core supporters are trying to remold the courts with conservative and originalist appointments. Democrats and their core supporters are trying to preserve what is left of their last bastion of strength in terms of activist judges who will defend and advance liberal policies. The stakes are incredibly high, and everyone knows it.If Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist can keep 50 Republicans on board to support the nuclear/Constitutional option and abolish filibustering of judicial nominees, the road will be clear to confirm virtually everyone President Bush nominates. Most pundits now seem to believe that Frist has sufficient votes, and that the showdown is finally at hand.
Difficult negotiations rarely reach the serious stage until a deadline is staring everyone in the face. We can see the evidence in the intense last-minute negotiations which are underway among many Senators. Most Senators would just as soon avoid the issue rather than risk a metaphorical nuclear war. But indefinite avoidance is not possible; judicial nominees eventually must start coming to the Senate floor for a decision.
Then again, maybe indefinite avoidance is possible.
If Frist really does have the votes, and all compromise negotiations fail, the Democrats are left with only two choices: (1) Filibuster a nominee until Frist asks for a ruling from Vice-President Cheney which will abolish all future filibusters, or (2) Don't filibuster any nominees.
It seems to me that option # 2 is the obvious option to take.
Either way, Bush is going to get his nominees confirmed. Democrats can easily go back to their core constituencies and make that case, that they simply didn't have the votes AT THIS TIME to block the nuclear option and prevent the confirmations.
But this at least leaves open the door to future filibusters after the 2006 elections. If Democrats pick up even one seat in the Senate, it may be enough to neuter the nuclear/Constitutional option. Who cares if Bush replaces Renquist with another conservative? This gives Democrats some hope of blocking Supreme Court nominations during Bush's final two years in office.
My guess is that six moderate Democratic Senators will get together and announce that they are taking the path of avoidance, and for now they will vote with Republicans to close debate on pending judicial confirmations even if they subsequently vote against the nominees. The nuclear showdown will be avoided. Democrats will lose this battle but live to fight again.
And let's face it, avoiding difficult decisions would truly be in line with the great traditions of the United States Senate.