Replies

The Bush administration and national GOP are suffering substantial damage among their base due to support for illegal and excessive immigration.

Only in the minds of a few people. If so many people were obsessed with a single issue than it would have showed up in the 2004 election. Not one single poll had it listed as a high priority issue with voters. The President won, the Republican Party won, the Constitution Party didn't get a larger percentage of voters, and Tancredo didn't get enough write in votes to be a blip on the radar.

The 2004 election was dominated by the Iraq War, with illegal immigration suppressed as an issue due to both Presidential candidates having the same position. The public is some 60 to 80 per cent against the current wave of illegal immigration and increasingly upset about it.

Issue salience and votes quickly develop when candidates take opposite positions and the false consensus of bipartisan complicity is broken. In 2004, David Drier in California had a surprisingly close general election against a nominal opponent due to the immigration issue, which was stirred up by a couple of radio personalities. There were several other elections in which the anti-immigration side prevailed.

In 2006 and 2008, illegal immigration will be a major issue in Congressional races and in the Presidential election. There will be losing candidates and consultants who go home mumbling that "Gee, it didn't seem like a big issue in the benchmark polling last year."

I have a recurring nightmare about the fall of 2008 in which, trailing in the polls, Hillary or whomever is the Democratic candidate suddenly comes out forcefully against illegal immigration, with the de facto acquiescence of the AFL-CIO and the Left. If so, they and the Democrats win.

Would Hillary and the Democrats betray a position and constituency for the sake of winning national power? In an instant -- and without a trace of regret.

Bush very sensibly backed off from his pro-illegal position until after the election was won. His base had little choice because the specter of Jean-Jacques Kerry in the White House was so repugnant. Grownups don't vote for fun. They vote for results.

Illegal immigration has become a major problem for the GOP. And this point about unions vs Hispanics ignores the fact that illegal immigration hurts ALL low wage American citizens, many of whom are Hispanic.

And since when is it our responsibility to export American jobs to stem illegal immigration ? The prosperity of Mexico and Central America is not our responsibility.