I'd love to explain it.
I had all the Southern California horses. 4 of the top 6 were Southern Cal horses who were dismissed by almost everybody.
The heavy rain in California in January and February stunted the growth and set back the training of all the horses there. They were all "behind" the East Coast horses in their training scheduled.
First, I immediately threw out Bandini and Bellamy Road. When thoroughbreds set brand new tops (career bests), they almost always go backwards in there next start if they didn't have significant rest between starts. Career best efforts take alot of out of horses. That and considering they were going to be short odds, they are easy toss-outs.
Second, it was common knowledge that there was going to be a "Rabbit" in the race.. Spanish Chestnut. Right from that, I can almost guarantee you the winner is going to come from the back, especially with a distance none of these horses have ever seen (1 1/4 mile)
Young 3 year old horses are not matured enough to "Rate". Rating is where the jockey can easily hold the horse back behind the pace without straining. A horses natural tendency is to RUN with the pack. When you have to strain to hold a horse back, it takes alot of energy out of the horse and the horse is dead at the top of the stretch.
This leaves horses who are natural "closers" to have the best chance of winning the race.
Giacomo had very good 2 year old speed figures (for a 2 year old), the rain and floods held his training back and he didn't progress as fast as some of the other horses in the east did. His training at Churchill Downs has been solid all week, he had some great workouts before the Derby and was an rapidly developing horse.
The early hot pace really chewed up alot of potential contenders (including my favorite to win it, High Fly).. if there's slower pace, I think High Fly is there at the end.
It was however very logical (to me anyway) to have a small win bets on some of the overlooked closers. The race shaped up perfectly for them, and I cashed a small win ticket ($4) on Giacomo,
I am kicking myself for not nailing the Exacta with Closing Argument, but I only usually play $50 on these big TV events, I don't get too carried away.. It's tough to bet everything.
4 of the Top 6 Finishers were Southern California trained horses.