Posted on 05/05/2005 9:30:32 AM PDT by quidnunc
"Often in error, never in doubt" is the motto of the professional pundit. Today's election is deeply troubling to conservative Washington pundits; even now, most of us cannot answer the simple question, "Should Tony Blair win or lose?"
Mr. Blair has been as staunch a friend as the U.S. has in the world. Throughout the war on terror, he has been brave, eloquent, thoughtful and incredibly helpful. A Blair victory would be interpreted around the world as a vindication of the Bush-Blair policy in Iraq.
Nor has Mr. Blair's domestic record been so bad from a conservative point of view. UK taxes remain low by European standards. Unemployment is down, home ownership up. On the other hand, his government has abolished the deduction for mortgage interest. It has raised fuel taxes and increased national insurance contributions. Worse definitely lies ahead. Public spending has risen from 38 percent of national income to 42 percent over the past three years, with more projected. Half the net new jobs created since 1997 have been in the public sector. It seems that two-thirds of Mr. Blair's party is plotting to boot him out in favor of Gordon Brown, the ultra-statist chancellor. So would it not be best for the electorate to replace Mr. Blair now?
But with what? Michael Howard's new model Conservative party is not exactly boiling with free-market zeal. It has offered a derisory tax cut and almost as much new spending as Labour. Mr. Howard himself was one of the finest home secretaries of the past three decades and has wise and reasonable things to say about crime and immigration. But unlike George W. Bush, U.S. president, who disguises many bold ideas in the sugary rhetoric of compassionate conservatism, the Conservatives' horrible "Are You Thinking What We're Thinking?" advertisements have wrapped those reasonable ideas in the snarling tones of Enoch Powell on his third whisky.
-snip-
A message from Boris Johnson
posted on 5 May 2005 at 10:45am
"Many thanks to all/both our readers for logging on. The Spectator Election Website is now drawing to its climax. Vote Tory, vote often! Any member of Spectator staff caught voting Lib Dem will be dealt with severely!
I’ve just been standing in a Conservative committee room watching the votes spool ever upwards like house prices in Oxfordshire; I am therefore full of confidence that whatever happens we are now seeing the end of the Blair premiership. Even if – which I do not for a moment concede – Tony Blair hangs on to his job tonight, he will find it increasingly unbearable. Not only will he face a revived and invigorated Tory party, but also ranged behind him will be the vengeful spirits of his backbenchers, consumed with self-loathing for what they supported in Iraq, and determined to jugulate Mr Tony as soon as they can. It will not be a pretty sight, but we of The Spectator will shed no tears. For the full blow by blow political coverage over the coming months you have only one choice: The Spectator. Buy the mag, build the movement. Over and out.”
As dictated from the campaign trail somewhere between Wheatley and Great Haseley in the wilds of Oxfordshire.
How do different demographic/income groups vote in Britain? Is it like the US where the working class tends to vote conservative and the more educated vote for the left? Or is it the more traditional opposite?
Is there a thread on Free Republic for the British elections today?
I guess we will start knowing the results late afternoon (Nebraska time).
Rush just mentionerd that Brit exit polls are showing a strong Tory showing.
But, of course, the early exit polls in our election indicated a Kerry landslide.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1397239/posts
You call ... we haul! ;)
Thank you, sirs; I appreciate it.
Don't you think that this is an ironic reference to '04?
Does that mean a tory victory?
In Britain the working class often vote labour and the upper class usually go Tory.
Of course the Thatcher years turned this upside down. Labor was, at that point, at odds with British society.
In many ways Blair has strangely benefitted from Thatcher, Tories (her own party) have never capitalized on her accomplishments.
It may be because Thatcher came from working / middle class roots. Anyway something to think about I suppose.
So now the working class votes labour again?
Yeah, but Blairs a great pick.
<< .... the US where the working class tends to vote conservative and the more educated vote for the left? >>
And you are smoking what? Did you say?
First, what you said is patently not true -- and, second, please, in future, be sure to not confuse skoolin' with education!
I never liked Blair but I have to say that he was really there when it counted - I haven't heard of anyone like that yet on the other side.
I'm not sure where these exit poll 'figures' are coming from, I've seen nothing on any British news source and I've never seen an exit poll released in advance of the polls closing.
I see you still accept the consensus that ceased to be true in 1980. The consensus that Republicans are mostly rich and older, while democrats are working class and younger people. The last election in which that was true was 1976.
Exit-polling results are available to the parties and to those media outlets which subscribe to them.
The understanding is that they are not supposed to be leaked but Rush Limbaugh just gave his radio audience a heads-up on the trend up to this time.
Yep... he hinted at the exit polling not looking good on election day here.
What I am wondering though, is whether the exit polling shows the Tories a respectable second, or winning the election... big difference. The first scenario is pretty much what everybody expects, the second would shock the world.
Rush wasn't specific about numbers.
<< I see you still accept the consensus that ceased to be true in 1980. >>
No.
I simply observe that those who vote Republican are the best educated and, for that matter, most intelligent Americans.
And that America's "best educated" aught not be confused with those lumpen layabouts who've merely spent more time -- decades some of them -- in schools, colleges and universities -- and who are, for the most part, too stupid to know they're being lied to and/or are too greedy and/or mean-spirited to care -- and who vote "Democrat."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.