[infominer]

A LOT of inconsistencies that need to be winnowed through for a more complete understanding of this outbreak. Is it likely that this Marburg outbreak might take on the general pattern of HIV in Africa?

Clearly HIV in Africa is epidemic. This Marburg genetic strain appears to have the potential to evolve into a similar epidemic. However, with deadlier and more immediate consequences. In my mind I keep going back to 2ndreconmarine's Figure D and analysis thereof. Figuratively, Figure D looks like a volcano. Analytically it can be perceived the same way. A large base for case potential (large relative urban area with cultural practices that increase one's sphere of influence) similar to a magma chamber. And a mountain of magma (confirmed cases) building for a blowout.

When a volcano erupts, the ensuing consequences are magnified in area (whether lava flow, pyroclastic explosion, or ash). Similarly, when this Marburg outbreak "erupts" the chaos will be magnified by disbursal of the populace - panic and exodus. The more I think about this outbreak with the inconsistencies the more I think this is why the officials are trying to keep the lid on it.

Yes, I know the economic and political ramifications mentioned throughout this thread - and they are quite real. But, to me there appears too many inconsistencies with the reporting of cases and the virus' affect to be purely economic and political reasons for the lack of published information.

[Judith Anne]

Similarly, when this Marburg outbreak "erupts" the chaos will be magnified by disbursal of the populace - panic and exodus. The more I think about this outbreak with the inconsistencies the more I think this is why the officials are trying to keep the lid on it.

Yes, and isn't it bizarre? By keeping a lid on it, they are ensuring panic and exodus--in fact, that's already occurred--WHO and MSF have clearly reported that not only do Angolans resist help and run to other areas, they stone the vehicles of the "helpers."