American decline?

JWR ^ | 4-21-05 | Victor Davis Hanson

[FlyLow]

For over a century European intellectuals have predicted the decline of the United States. The German philosophers Hegel, Nietzsche and Spengler saw Western democracy and capitalism as pernicious — the unfortunate wages of a classical civilization that had lavished upon natural man too much wealth and indulgence.

Later the Nazis bragged that they were descendants of untainted Germanic tribes of old, and promised that poorly-disciplined American "cowboys" wouldn't stand a chance against their Panzers. The Japanese militarists claimed that their ultra-nationalist Bushido code would give them an edge over the "decadent" GIs.

During the Cold War, hardcore socialists pontificated that the (soon-to-collapse) Soviet Union was ascendant, inasmuch as it had realized Karl Marx's triumphant New Man who was reborn from the ashes of capitalism.

In President Jimmy Carter's days of "national malaise," the state-subsidized industries of Japan, Inc. were supposedly making us all wage slaves to Sony and Toyota — until the Asian financial meltdown.

Now a new generation of pessimists is warning that it is the turn of the European Union, flush with trade surpluses, a small defense budget and a strong Euro. Larger in size than us, with a greater population, a better educated youth and a supposedly more humane social net, will Europe gradually nudge the United States from its world preeminence? Or does the new Asian axis of 2 billion in China and India instead foretell American decline?

Some long-term indicators here at home are indeed worrisome. The deficit is again spiraling. Our trade debt is enormous. The dollar is weak. Materialistic Americans are buying more consumer goods than their global scorecard might otherwise warrant — all predicated on borrowed money from Asia that could be recalled with little warning.

[tkathy]

The only way America will decline is if the democrats get back in power. If dims are in power, America declines until the reps get in power and fix the resulting damage.

[Grut]

Later the Nazis bragged that... poorly-disciplined American "cowboys" wouldn't stand a chance against their Panzers. The Japanese militarists claimed that their ultra-nationalist Bushido code would give them an edge over the "decadent" GIs.

One-on-one, they were pretty tough opponents. We won mainly because there were more of us and we out-produced them. Today, we don't produce material goods, we buy, and our prosperity relies on the charity - or at least, the willingness to trade - of strangers.

This may or may not be a fatal weakness but it certainly is not the position of strength we formerly enjoyed. If they cut off our oil and we cut off their new software, who do you think's going to cry "uncle" first?

[jolie560]

If illiterate, barbaric nations get and use "nukes", all rational theories end. That has been what history records, accurate or not.

[2banana]

All these predictions never come true because you can not predict the future - who in 1905 predicted two world wars and a depression in the 40 years?

[roses of sharon]

The dims ARE in power, have been for 40 yrs, and will be, until we face the truth and finally begin to attack.

As I have been preaching for ten years, NY and Hollywood run our Reps in DC, our education K-college, our judiciary, our culture, everything.

We "won" this election by the skin of our teeth, and our power is still minimal because the elites run this country, not middle America. As long as our congressional reps make policy according to the NYT editorial board and the Today show, NY and Hollywood will remain in charge.

[jveritas]

How is the EU nudging in the right direction?

If we have an unemployment rate over 10% and growing, do think that we will be nudging in the right direction?

Why it is extremey bad for us to have an unemployment rate of 6% but when Germany has an unemployment rate over 12% (highest since WW II) and France has an unemployment rate over 10% than no problem.

In 10 to 15 years the EU will not exist because history teach us that no union will occur among people with different languages, culture, and history. This is simply an impossible thing that goes against human nature.

If 95% of the US population live in extreme poverty, barely having two meals a day to eat, do you think that we are super economic power? Of course not. This is the case with China and even worse for India? So why do we keep overrating these two countries?

Why do we always overrate our problems and overexxagerate our opponents strength, when in reality our opponents have far much more weaknesses and much less strength.

[roses of sharon]

So let's make a plan, what can we do about it?

[Dallas59]

Apparently, keep blaming the Demorats.

[LS]

The "trade deficit" is almost entirely in capital, meaning that foreign nations choose to invest in the U.S. rather than anywhere else. Hmmmm? Why invest in a "bad economy?" Or one where the "manufacturing base is disappearing?"

They invest here because we are still, by far, the #1 economy in the world, and while overall manufacturing is lower than, say, in 1980, manufacturing productivity is higher than ever, and higher than most places on earth. Japan is still staggering to recover from its state-induced "growth" spurt of the 1980s---and subsequent rapid collapse---and China is only superficially growing by adding more to the labor force, but not increasing productivity (last data I saw). "Outsourcing" accounts for about 2% of all unemployment. Europe and China are heading for massive---MASSIVE---upheavals, one due to declining wealth, one due to increasing wealth and the latter certainly does not have the legal/political structure to deal with this upheaval at this time. Stay tuned.

[LS]

First, if necessary, we could re-establish (and vastly surpass) the WW II-type "industrial base" in record time. You'd be amazed at how, when motivated, Americans can build.

Second, there is simply no need to build stuff if it is uneconomical to do so just so you can say, "we can build that, too." We have never done ceramic tiles, for example. Did you know that one single PROVINCE in Italy accounts for 90% of the WORLD'S tile industry? We don't do much with ore, mining technology, or drills (aside from Hughes corp). That's the Swedes---they do it better than anyone on earth.

A good perspective on this, if slightly dated, is Michael POrter's, "The Competitive Advantage of Nations," where he shows manufacturing/productive "clusters," and we lead in total numbers of clusters, as well as in most of the growth clusters.

[Delphinium]

The dims ARE in power, have been for 40 yrs, and will be, until we face the truth and finally begin to attack.

Alot of them call themselves Republicans.

[chilepepper]

not true.

german defeat can be placed squarely on the shoulders of it "superior" leadership, and i think that is exactly the point -- an inclusive democracy fosters a practical outlook, and a large middle class creates a great pool from which first rate leaders can appear (Truman perhaps the best example).

*every* elitist society selects its leaders based on rigid, preconceived notions colored more by ideology than practical effect.

a United States that listens more to an Eric Hoffer rather than to a Hegel is in very good shape indeed...

[LS]

Exactly right. The EU not only is not going in the "right" direction (less competition, higher taxes, more PC) but is ostracizing the ONLY member that is growing, Ireland!

And who woulda thought, 70 years ago, that Ireland would have "help wanted" signs everywhere?

[spetznaz]

An excerpt from the Funeral Oration by Pericles:

The funeral oration by, Pericles:

Then, again, our military training is in many respects superior to that of our adversaries. Our city is thrown open to the world, though and we never expel a foreigner and prevent him from seeing or learning anything of which the secret if revealed to an enemy might profit him. We rely not upon management or trickery, but upon our own hearts and hands. And in the matter of education, whereas they from early youth are always undergoing laborious exercises which are to make them brave, we live at ease, and yet are equally ready to face the perils which they face. And here is the proof: The Lacedaemonians come into Athenian territory not by themselves, but with their whole confederacy following; we go alone into a neighbor's country; and although our opponents are fighting for their homes and we on a foreign soil, we have seldom any difficulty in overcoming them. Our enemies have never yet felt our united strength, the care of a navy divides our attention, and on land we are obliged to send our own citizens everywhere. But they, if they meet and defeat a part of our army, are as proud as if they had routed us all, and when defeated they pretend to have been vanquished by us all.

Anyways, the US will always be at the top as long as internal rot doesn't take place. That is one of the surest ways to destroy great countries. And once internal rot has taken place then the 'barbarian hordes' can take care of the rest. However, if the people can rely on their true strengths (as PEricles states 'their hearts and hands') then nothing can really shake the resolute spirit of this nation. The onyl way to destroy the US is to have Americans destroy themselves (primarily by messing up their youth so much that they are, in essence, no longer 'American' at heart but only in citizenship. And there is a huge difference between an 'American' and an 'American citizen' that i shall not go into right now. Anyways, if the younger generations are made (taught?) to forget their true heritage, and to eschew hard work in favor of 'good feelings,' then that opens doors.

Anyways.

But the US will always be number one .....up and until the moment it decides not to be. And if that ever happens it will be the people themselves who make that decision. And as amazingly stupid as that decision would be it is quite possible. Rome fell long before the Barbarians came a-storming at their gates.

[hildy123]

The first thing America needs to do is deploy what’s left of our National Guard and Reserves to our borders, set up temporary tent cities until permanent bases could be built.
Cycle the units through by using their two weeks annual training as patrol and refresher training. The Minutemen have proven that just being present on the border is enough to deter illegals to some extent. If they have to face plains, American’s with guns and tank’s, that may help keep them in Canada and Mexico. On the subject of the EU, they will sink simply because a people cannot compete with such a high taxation rate at home and competition abroad. The EU will shine bright only for a short time and then go out.
Education, I’m at a loss. My children go to private schools and it’s not easy, but it is a solid investment in our future. Government run schools are failing, curriculum is a problem but the teachers unions are killing our future. Tax credits will help, I know there is movement on a bill to provide tax credits for families who send their children private schools.

[happyathome]

Well that's accurate, but with the decline of the MSM don't you think the long-term trends are in our (Conservative) favor? Witness W's margin in 2000 vs. 2004. The more the truth gets out, the more the NY/LA Times circulation and broadcast news readership declines. I'm optimistic about the mind-set of Americans. I'm a little more worried about the earlier post about us being a post-industrial nation that doesn't actually produce much hardware anymore.

[Americanexpat]

"Later the Nazis bragged that...poorly-disciplined American "cowboys" wouldn't stand a chance against Panzers. The Japanese militarists claimed that their ultra-nationalists Bushido code would give them an edge over the "decadent" GIs."

The fighting quality of our fighting troops have always been denigrated by our enemies and we still kick the shiite out of them.