Okay okay - let us have it!!
But .. you have to explain why you were so confident.
All you have to do is look at who is up for re-election in 2006; whether or not they have lots of money or support from the RNC. Chaffee has neither, so except on issues that will cost him dearly at home(nuclear option), he will be a good soldier and vote with the party most of the time.
That also goes for those who want to be President, with the support of Conservatives (Hagel), because jerks like McCain are looking for Moderates and Hillary-haters to put him over the top. He will run as an Independent because he would never get the nomination as a Republican.