Posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:32 PM PDT by Destro
World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues
Those who grew up during the Cold War may have trouble keeping up with shifts among major world powers. Some still think that Russia will reemerge as a superpower, even though it is not even one the world's top 15 economic powers. One may dismiss Japan as a major military power, not realizing that it is the world's second largest economic power whose military spending exceeds that of China. The respected Economist magazine recently published: "World in Figures, 2004." Data has been extracted from this book to provide a brief comparison of world powers in 2004:
Population is one measure. While Western military analysts focus on material, manpower is critical. Providing AK-47s and RPGs to several million men creates a powerful force, albeit not one capable of major operations. Recall that a million Chinese foot soldiers fought the modern US Army to a stalemate in Korea, and thousands of illiterate Somalis mauled US Army Rangers in 1993. Today, the most populous nations are: #1 China; #2 India (which will surpass China by 2030); a distant #3 United States; #4 Indonesia; #5 Brazil. Pakistan is #6, just ahead of Russia. Bangladesh is #8, Japan at #9 and Nigeria at #10.
Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity, not of wealth, and total population is a major factor. The busiest economies are: #1 United States; #2 Japan (about half of the US); #3 Germany; #4 United Kingdom; #5 France. Yes, the UK and France remain ahead of China which is #6. Surprisingly, Mexico is #9 and Brazil #11, while Russia is way down at #16, even behind South Korea at #13 and the Netherlands at #14. Keep in mind that GDP is misleading. For example, at least 10% of the GDP for the USA comes from borrowing overseas, something that will end, some day. In addition, some 3% of American GDP is created by civil lawsuits because that is "activity."
Current Account is a measure of which nations are accumulating wealth though savings and have an annual surplus: #1 Japan; #2 Russia (rebuilding); #3 Norway (lots of oil profits); #4 Switzerland (secret banking); #5 France. Nations which are bleeding wealth through borrowing have an annual deficit, and are led by: #1 United States, which has an annual deficit 17 times greater than #2 United Kingdom; #3 Brazil (improving though); #4 Mexico; #5 Spain. One final measure is Industrial Output: #1 United States; #2 Japan; #3 China (growing rapidly); #4 Germany; #5 United Kingdom. Of interest is South Korea at #9 while Russia is way down at #14, behind #13 India.
World Powers in 2030?
#1 China
#2 European Union
#3 Japan
#4 United States (bankrupt)
#5 India
#6 Korea (unified)
#7 Russia (recovered)
#8 Brazil
#9 United Kingdom
#10 Mexico
While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.
China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)
Although Japan will lose population in the years ahead, it is likely to remain the world's most technologically advanced nation. It will prosper once it finds more cash paying customers and stops granting $200 billion in credit each year to the soon to be bankrupt USA, which will be forced to cut it's military budget in half.
India is growing fast and Brazil is booming due to the increased worldwide demand for raw materials.
Pakistan and Indonesia have potential, but political instability is likely to hamper development.
These are just basic statistics, but they probably surprise many readers who have not updated their perceptions of world powers.
Carlton Meyer editor@G2mil.com
No where near what is going on in socialist EU and communist China.
Have a little patience. Next time you're there, take a stroll (actually, don't) through places like Clos Saint-Lazare.
Yes. Their stock of human capital is not being replenished, and future increases in per-capita productivity won't compensate.
Ever stroll through Bed-Sty, Brooklyn? At night??
The problem with France and the EU is that people make less money on average than those in the US, they pay more taxes than what Americans do, and almost everything is more expensive to purchase than in the US. That is why we live much better than the snobby Europeans, and they know it, and they are very jealous.
That is an excellent point.
Thus far, the residents of Bed-Stuy are not blowing up the NYC mass-transit system. How about Madrid?
Um - you forgot about the train bomb plot then that the NYPD busted? Said jihadists lived in Brooklyn.
We are not socialist period. We are the real free Market Capitalist economy in the world.
Maybe we should export some of New York's finest.
Plenty of Chinese girls born outside of China.
The real difference, of course, is that, unlike Paris, the Islamic community is not nearly so segregated and insular in the US.
Social Security? Medicaid? Medicare? Welfare? NASA? Where have you been? Whe just are too ashamed to call ourselves for what we are - a Socialist nation, albiet on the light side of pink.
Yes, the issue is intergration or lack there of. Thomas Freidman's new book "The Earth is Flat" about what globalization is doing postulates that the brain drain into America is slowing down and will stop. Because of technology and globalization people need not pull up roots and leave theor home nation to prosper. I am not a fan of Freidman but since we are having fun predicting the future I thought I would toss that in here.
The problem general is that vast majority of Americans only see the best part of Paris (Champs Elysee, trip on the Seine river, Louvres, Notre Dame, Cedex de Defense etc...) and they do not see the remaining 70% of Paris where poverty and misery rule. They need to take a trip in the metro to see poverty on people faces. The same things apply for many other European cities.
Social security will always remain and hopefully President Bush will make it more "free Market" driven through private accounts.
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