Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda

Recombinomics ^ | April 12, 2005 | Recombinomics Commentary

[Covenantor]

Marburg Toll in Angola Rises to 237 - 11 in Luanda

Recombinomics Commentary

April 12, 2005

>> The health ministry and WHO said in a statement that the greatest number of deaths -- 190 -- was recorded in the northern Uige province, the epicenter of the epidemic that was first detected in October.

A total of 202 cases have been detected in Uige, it said.

The highest number of deaths after Uige was in the Kwanza Sul province with six fatalities and six cases, followed by five deaths and 11 cases in Luanda, five deaths and six cases in Zaire, two deaths and four cases in Mananje, and one death and one case each in the provinces of Cabinda and Kwanza Norte.

Meanwhile, health ministry spokesman Alberto Carlos told reporters that six other bodies had been found in a hospital morgue in Uige and that laboratory tests proved that they had succumbed to the virus.

He underlined that these deaths did not figure in the toll released Tuesday, without giving a reason. <<

The latest update indicated that the recorded cases had grown to 231 (excluding the six bodies in the Uige morgue). Uige has 190, but now Luanda has the second highest number of cases with 11. These two provinces also have the largest numbers of recorded patients that are still alive, with 12 in Uige and 6 in Luanda. The only other provinces with recorded patients who have not yet died are Mananje with 2 and Zaire with 1. The other 3 provinces have no recorded survivors.

These latest figures for Luanda match the 5 deaths described in media reports. The data suggests that the two recent cases in Cacuaco described in media reports have either not died, or not been recorded. The same situation would apply to the Portuguese national. The latest update indicates that there are three additional cases in Luanda which have not been described in media reports.

This added detail focuses attention on Uige and Luanda, but the number of unreported cases in these two areas is still unknown, which is also true for the other provinces.

The 237 cases suggest that the number of recorded cases will soon exceed the record number of 280 deaths in the 1976 Ebola outbreak in Zaire. There are still no recent reports of any of the Marburg cases in Angola being discharged.

[ordinaryguy]

According to this article, they are watching 361.

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/News/0,,2-11-1447_1688861,00.html

[Heatseeker]

The following also unchanged and hardly requires comment: "No U.S. travel restrictions to the affected area are recommended at this time."

I think maybe I'll call them tomorrow morning, identify myself as a representative of the World Barenaked Medtechs & Reusable Syringe Promotion Society, and thank them for making me feel comfortable about traveling to northern Angola for our convention, especially since I've really had a hankering for some tasty raw bushmeat lately.

[Covenantor]

It is awkward writing. Here's my re-cap(cases refers to victims still living)

Uige 202 dead

Kwanza Sul 6 dead + 6 cases

Luanda 5 dead + 11 cases

Zaire province 5 dead + 6 cases

Mananje 2 dead +4 cases

Cabinda 1 dead + 1 case

Kwanza Norte 1 dead +1 case

[AntiGuv]

Hmmm.. How does the Marburg get to the exclave of Cabinda without getting to the 'Democratic' Congo?? I suppose it's quite plausible, but still..

[Judith Anne]

place bump.

[Covenantor]

See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1381928/posts?page=32#32

for larger scale map with roads. You'll see that there are roads that connect Uige via DRC. Since both Uige and Cabinda have coffee plantations i assume that there is a fair amount of contact between the two. Although I would also be worried about a coastal freighter between Luanda's port and Cabinda. I don't know where in Cabinda the cases are.

[AntiGuv]

More notably, there's a road of approximately equal distance connecting Uige to Kinshasa/Brazzaville - with a combined population of 6+ million..

[united1000]

Wasn't there a case in Portugal that has since died as well? Of those cases verified or in quarantine that have been outside of Africa, there has been nothing but silence.

[Judith Anne]

Thank you very much for your work. It is really appreciated.

[Judith Anne]

I read, and can't remember where, of two cases in Portugal. I hadn't heard that one died, but it wouldn't be surprising.

And STILL no word about the 9 cases in Italy under isolation quarantine.

[Boundless]

> Of those cases verified or in quarantine that have been
> outside of Africa, there has been nothing but silence.

If there are any (and if there aren't, it's probably just
a matter of time), expect massive official omerta until
news can no longer be contained, particularly from
countries hosting any appreciable amount of tourism
(like Portugal).

They may think that they can silently contain incoming
cases in hospital.

[Covenantor]

Here's the updated Marburg Angola plot 2 as prepared by 2ndreconmarine

[Covenantor]

ping for 2ndreconmarine new Marburg 2 plot

[2ndreconmarine]

Thank you.

I should point out to all those interested in the statistics, the Pearsons Correlation Coefficient for the fit was R^2 = .998

[2ndreconmarine]

Whoops.

I should point out on the second curve, that it is the projection to May 31, not May 1

/embarrassed

[AntiGuv]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that projection through June 1 (or May 30)?

[AntiGuv]

Never mind then! (and, yes!, I do know how many days are in May......)

[AntiGuv]

So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

[Boundless]

> So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your
> data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

Or put another way, can you do the vertical (#cases)
as a logarithmic scale. Is the "curve" then a
straight line?

[2ndreconmarine]

So, what are the actual # of cases projected by your data points for April 30 and May 31 respectively?

April 30: 1,778
May 31: 51,140