"Two weeks ago an expert warned Sumatra to expect another quake. Yesterday he was proved right. Richard Macey and Deborah Smith report."
Experts predict this stuff all the time, but they only make the news the 1% of the time they are right; when they're wrong, no one cares.
The number of (earthquakes that occur each day divided by the size of the earth/percentage under water)+d*recent activity=easy guess.