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After years of buildup and preparation, the Chinese military leadership is probably chafing at the bit, hence a sop thrown in their direction when the Party passed that recent 'Let's Invade Taiwan Soon' anti-succession law. Strangely, with no real evidence, I don't think the Party wants a war--at least not this soon, not yet. If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react. The President has encouraged this ambiguity, walking a fine line throughout most of his administration, discouraging talk of outright Taiwanese independence and stressing the 'one China' policy while simultaneously promoting strengthened coordination with Japanese and Taiwanese military planners. A strange game paradigm is emerging here. The President, it seems to me, is a poker kind of guy who keeps it close to the vest, his face unreadable. This is good for us in the short term, but at some point the Chinese are going to make their play. In my view, it will happen after the current administration. The Chinese leadership knew in their bones that a President Kerry would stand back and do nothing. The Party, patient if nothing else, will wait for another Kerry or Clinton. In the meantime, they'll probably continue to placate their military and solidify their position.

What worries me the most is that if China does decide to move decisively against the ROC then they will also know that we will in some way retaliate. Simple causality. However, the question then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries? It could theoretically bring our country to an economic standstill by completely devaluing our currency.

"If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react."

He doesn't need to keep them guessing. He needs to make it clear to them by stating he will defend Taiwan if they attack like he did at the beginning of his first term. We also need to show public support for Taiwan declaring independence. Waiting and appeasing China is only allowing them to choose the perfect timing of an invasion and allowing them to become more powerful. Let's push them until they back down when it comes to Taiwan or attack while they are less prepared then they will be in the future.

"Strangely, with no real evidence, I don't think the Party wants a war--at least not this soon, not yet. If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately."

Agreed with your speculation. Here is my speculation: Taiwan is the little ploy to start a big war. The real play is the Middle East. We could stop them just like Japan in WWII in the Pacific and the Chinese know this.

However, we get involved in Taiwan and China uses this as an excuse to attack our "allies" namely Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Their army could roll right through the Middle East and if they cut our supply of oil off, their would be nothing we could do to stop them, pending using nukes on them.

Actually -- i think Bush will also "do nothing" if Taiwan delcares independence and is subsequently attacked by China.

Every presidential candidate would rachet up rhetorics on China and yet by the time they get into office, they do nothing.

The US could easily have launched missle strikes at the orion plane on Hainan island after the incident in 2001 and yet, Bush, got onto TV, looking really grimmed, and literally apologized to China.

There is a reason for this -- perhaps it's something that's not revealed to the US public about the real strength of the Chinese military, and/or economic losses.

China buys about 15% of US debt, Japan buys about 25%. Japan is heavily dependent on China for exports as well as its manufacturing base. If an all-out war starts with China, no doubt China will close its access to the Japanese. This will force Japan into a huge recession (China stops buying steel last yaer from Japan and that ALONE generated a recession for the Japanese), and they won't purchase US treasury bills. That's 40% right there. Without them, US will have to raise interest rates MASSIVELY which will kill its economy. That plus the instant rising of prices from Walmart, which accounts for about 10% of US economy some estimates, will cause a great depression. This is the problem with global trade.

Therefore, US will not get into an all out war with China. It will probably launch airstrikes at the most against Fujian province where most of the missles are pointed at Taiwan, assuming Taiwan didn't capitulate within a few days. That's it. Both side will restrain themselves. In the end, China probably won't be able to invade Taiwan, but Taiwan's infrastructure and technology will be destroyed (and Taiwan will basically, be back to the stone age). China will suffer Fujian province, which about all of the investments there came from Taiwan :)

So chill out -- the war scenario is only viable when Taiwan declares independence. Bush will control Chen shui-bian before he does that.