Not enough data points to make these kinds of generalizations. The problem though is that those who have not run the gauntlet of campaigns tend to make serious errors. If Condi can avoid such errors as a "rookie," and show reach and depth on domestic issues, and is articulate, she is in the hunt. If, lots of ifs, probably too many. Her abortion comments in my view were not particular skillful.
The Republican Party is not going to nominate someone who is even "mildly" pro-choice, unless that person opposes abortion except in cases of rape and incest. That is, by George W. Bush's lights, a pro-life position.
That's why I think that John McCain is going to show signs of life in the primary direction after the 2006 elections. McCain would still like to be president, and, unless Cheney quits and Bush nominates Rice to fill the VP spot, he'd have a great shot in 2008.
Watch McCain start courting the Christian right early next year.