Dan your vote really isn't in play in a general election, since the Dem will almost always be more pro abortion than the Pubbie, certainly in a presidential race, and given the other issues in play, your ballot is a given. It is cross conflicted voters that matter on this issue, not you.
With Rice, it also depends on the other issues since I don't vote blindly.
However, she can't expect to win if she underperforms 10% in base counties. Can a democrat win Michigan with 59% in Wayne County? Can a Republican win Ohio with losing Hamilton County or getting 56% in Butler County? Win Florida by going even up in Duval County?
That's what I see by a pro-choicer. I know way too many republicans who say "Candidate A is pro-choice? We have nothing to discuss".