Oil prices could hit $80 within two years

Daily Star ^ | March 04, 2005 | Paul Cochrane

[Crackingham]

Prices of crude oil could rise to as high as $80 a barrel within the next two years although such a price band would not last long, OPEC's acting secretary general was quoted as saying Thursday. "I can affirm that the price of a barrel of crude oil rising to $80 in the near future is a weak possibility," Adnan Shehab al-Dine told Kuwait's Al-Qabas newspaper.

"But I cannot rule out (the possibility) of oil prices rising to $80 a barrel within the next two years," he said.

"If the oil price rises to this level for one reason or another - for example, interruption of supplies from a producing nation by 1 to 2 million barrels a day - it is not expected to continue for long," he said.

Shehab al-Dine said a price rise to between $50 to $60 a barrel for a period of two years or more will inevitably boost investments to increase supplies and lead to a drop in demand, eventually reducing prices.

World oil prices were mixed on Thursday after reaching four-month highs in New York and London the previous day amid a rise in U.S. crude stocks and jitters over increased global demand.

The crude oil closed in New York at just over $53.05 a barrel for the second day, the highest closing level since Oct. 26.

In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in April rose $0.08 to $51.30 a barrel on Thursday, after earlier reaching a new four-month high of $51.50.

"The continued upward trend in crude prices is a reflection of market perception that has changed in the last few weeks," London-based Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish said.

"The market is very sensitive to any kind of supply disruptions at the moment."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was to meet in Isfahan, Iran on March 16, when it was expected to maintain its current production level of 27 million barrels a day.

"OPEC certainly won't cut production, the question is whether they will agree to increase production," Barclays Capital's Norrish said.

[Deaf Smith]

Publicly predicting a future price instead of forcasting is called Market Manipulation.

[RayChuang88]

What's interesting is that with the coming of low-sulfur fuels in September 2006, it could make it really viable for vehicles to switch to clean-burning turbodiesel engines, since we now can apply the in fuel delivery technology (common-rail pressurized direct fuel injection) and emissions control technology (catalytic converters that double as diesel particulate traps).

The result is that automobiles, light trucks, SUV's and minivans with these new turbodiesel engines will get 35-45% better fuel efficiency than their gasoline-fuelled counterparts. And thanks to today's engine designs, the clattering sounds and smoky exhausts of past diesel engines are effectively banished with no loss of power, either!

Also, unlike gasoline-fuelled engines, diesel engines can also run off non-petroleum based diesel fuel quite easily; after all, the first engine Rudolf Diesel built ran off peanut oil, for gosh sakes! That means any crop that has a high carbohydrate count could be refined into diesel fuel--corn, wheat, soybeans, rice, peanuts, sugar beet and cane, and on and on. They've even discovered that certain types of algae could be refined into diesel fuel, which could make it possible to create gigantic ponds of algae that could create enough biomass to make enough diesel fuel for every vehicle in the USA rather easily!

[tobyhill]

This article was written strictly for speculators to raise the price on fears. OPEC knows that within 2 years their demand from the US will actually be down because we will have the natural gas market back down with the Alaskan natural gas pipeline open. Shortly there after ANWR will be producing light sweet crude, maybe upwards 1/2 million barrels a day? These middle-east fear publications are nothing short of attempted psychological warfare.

[Darnright]

Regarding fuel heated water tanks, our home has a wood stove, and we can divert water from the electric heater through it in winter, saving energy from 2 directions.

[AdmSmith]

Eyes on oil shale again

Pricey extraction techniques might be feasible if price keeps going up

By Leigh Dethman
Deseret Morning News

Oil prices Thursday peaked at their highest level since late October sparking yet another debate about the viability of Utah's high-cost, high-risk shale oil reserves as an alternative fuel source.

The Green River Formation, a geologic swath stretching into Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, contains an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of oil, according to the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

The problem is, nobody seems to know how to get it out at a reasonable price.

"The technology has been around for a long time," said Larry Nation of the association "Now might be the time to put it to good use."


http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,600116213,00.html

[starfish923]

two years, Doohickey wrote: Speculators are ruining the markets. It used to be about long term gains; now it's all about that quick score.

Speculators are an integral part of the petroleum business. At least, they always have been in the past. The "awl bidness" is about boom or bust--EXTREMELY risky and dangerous, both physically and fiscally.
But the profit$, ah, the profit$.

[1Old Pro]

I'm glad I have a few acres of trees. I think I'll invest in a new chainsaw, woodstove and log splitter.

[starfish923]

After working the oil industry for the last 25 years, I think this guy may be right. Companies are really having trouble replacing their reserves. People need to start thinking smarter. For example in Vegas people should have solar panels for residential energy use. Noone in Crete or Cyprus has fuel heated hot water tank. They have a tank on the roof of the house and the sun warms their water. Save oil and gas for cars and where you have no energy alternative.

What?! People need to start THINKING? AND they have to start thinking SMARTER? Whoa, pardner....that's askin' a WHOLE lot of us simple folk. Ain't there another way, a magic bullet? Abra-cadabra or something like that?

[pugdog]

One well I am very familiar with cost about 12 million and was a dry hole. Another cost about 2 million and is VERY good.

[starfish923]

It is time to move away from oil based energy. How about 1000 brand new nuclear plants, home solar plants on every rooftop, and a new hydrogen based combustion engine. Oh, and lets drill Anwar so we can continue to produce our own petro-chemical by-products without going broke.

Eighty percent of France's power comes from nuclear power.
We simply CAN'T face the real solution of NOT USING SO MUCH POWER AND FUEL....we simply CAN'T. We are just too spoiled. I'm right in there with the spoiled princesses, by the way. I don't want to give anything up either. We are stuck with our own success.

[starfish923]

years, pugdog wrote: One well I am very familiar with cost about 12 million and was a dry hole. Another cost about 2 million and is VERY good.

Sounds like Las Vegas to me.
Baby needs a new pair of shoes -- ROLL'EM!!

[maestro]

Oil prices could hit $80 within two years.....U.S.A. a 3rd world country.

[starfish923]

I'm glad I have a few acres of trees. I think I'll invest in a new chainsaw, woodstove and log splitter.

Keep a-plantin' those new trees so deforestation doesn't happen. Maybe you can trade some wood for power and fuel for lights, appliances, computer, truck parts, repairs of whatever....back to the barter system.

[Double Tap]

Simple fact of the matter is, you don't have to give up anything. Get the EPA and the enviro-loons out of the oil industry. Open up the coast of California and Florida to drilling. Open up ANWAR to drilling.

Then watch the oil company make a profit off of $20 barrel oil and smile. Because they sure as hell can't make a profit off of $20 barrel of oil now.

[pugdog]

The oil company takes the risk. The landowner signs a lease and will receive a percentage of the revenues that, in our case, is from 20 to 25%.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

If ANWR is like ANS, it won't be light, sweet.

[Euro-American Scum]

Bump for future reference.

[Vasilli22]

ping.

[Reason_and_Logic_Rule]

As far as a Cost/Profit ratio goes, drilling ANWR at the moment would not be profitable, now if Oil hits $80/b then maybe the profit margin would be high enough to get them interested.

[ManHunter]

Actually, they sound like bill O'Reilly talking points. Bill and his wife live in a huge house on Long Island (typical of many rich, ultra-liberal enviro-Nazis), but my SUV consumes too much energy. Yeah, right!