Lincoln was smarter than the Confederate leaders. I believe that under no circumstances could they have trapped him into striking first.
The value to the Union cause of the South firing the first shots cannot be overestimated. Among other critical points, if the Union had fired first, it would probably have tipped both MO and KY over the edge into successful secession. And Lincoln himself said that if those two states had gone the other way, the job would have been two big. Secession would have succeeded.
Exactly right.
Exactly right.