Posted on 02/15/2005 10:05:52 AM PST by Alex Marko
Statements out of North Korea and Iran last week confront the United States and other freedom-loving nations with a frightening prospect: Two of the world's most dangerous regimes are determined to wield nuclear weapons.
North Korea's claim already to have "nukes" came on the heels of an announcement by the Iranian mullahocracy that nothing will prevent it from realizing Iran's nuclear ambitions. Should we be worried?
The short answer is absolutely. After all, these are two governments whose state policy is hatred for America. Nuclear weapons in the hands of megalomaniacal tyrannies who are animated by this hatred and who are armed with ballistic missiles poses a unique - and intolerable - threat.
A Different Sort of Threat
The danger is not simply the prospect one or more of these rogue states' nuclear weapons could be used to destroy an American city - or perhaps an allied capital in the Mideast or Europe. Such an attack could be conducted by other means, with more prosaic delivery means such as trucks, ships or aircraft.
A blue-ribbon, congressionally mandated commission recently described an altogether different sort of nuclear attack, one made possible by the detonation high above the United States of a ballistic missile-delivered weapon. The panel was charged with "assessing the threat to the United States from an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack." It concluded that the EMP effects of such an attack at altitudes between 40 and 400 miles above this country could so severely disrupt, both directly and indirectly, electronics and electrical systems as to create a "damage level...sufficient to be catastrophic to the Nation." Worse yet, the commission concluded that "our current vulnerability invites attack." (View the executive summary of this classified report).
The EMP Threat Commission recommends steps be taken urgently to reduce that vulnerability by protecting electrical, water, telecommunications and other infrastructures against the crippling effects of electromagnetic pulse. The same needs to be done with our military which is also woefully unprepared for EMP attack.
Failure to take such steps could mean that a single North Korean or Iranian missile, possibly launched from a ship off the coast of the United States, could instantly transform this country from an advanced 21st Century society to an 18th Century one. It is hard to imagine a more devastating form of terror than that entailed in the dislocation, hardship and destruction that would accompany an America returned to a pre-industrial state - except now with its population crowded into cities that could not function, with a military unable to protect us or to maintain order.
America the Vulnerable
One of the reasons we are so acutely vulnerable to EMP attack is because we largely stopped worrying about this phenomenon thirteen years ago. In 1992, the United States adopted a moratorium on nuclear testing, thus precluding the most rigorous and reliable means of establishing the susceptibility of electronic systems to electromagnetic effects.
The folly of foregoing such testing has only been compounded by the reality that our moratorium has also had very deleterious effects on our nuclear deterrent. For example, we no longer can be certain that the weapons in our arsenal will work as they are supposed to. We are reduced to relying on what amounts to informed scientific guesswork based on computer simulations. Guesses are no substitute for the certitude we need when it comes to such life-and-death matters.
One thing is certain: Our stockpile is not as safe and reliable as we could make it. Without realistic testing, we can only introduce changes in the components or designs of existing weapons at the risk of further degrading confidence they will work.
What is more, we are unable to introduce new designs that would be better suited to countering threats posed by countries like Iran and North Korea than the hugely destructive weapons developed more than twenty years ago to counter targets in the Soviet Union.
Worst of all, these costs have been incurred for no good reason. Neither North Korea nor Iran have, as far as we know, conducted nuclear tests on their way to joining the "nuclear club." Consequently, it is now indisputable that the United States' foreswearing underground testing has not had the promised effect -- impeding proliferation.
In an important analysis published recently by the Center for Security Policy, Vice Admiral Robert Monroe USN (Ret.), a former director of the Defense Nuclear Agency, argues persuasively that if we are to have any hope of preventing proliferation in the future, the United States must maintain a credible nuclear deterrent - and undertake the associated testing, developmental and industrial actions.
Finally, notwithstanding the latest setback in testing the Nation's preliminary anti-missile defense system, the perfecting and fielding of such capabilities must continue - and be expanded to include sea-, air- and space-based assets. The threat of an EMP attack is hardly the only reason for ensuring that ballistic missiles cannot be used to do harm to this country, but it is a particularly compelling one.
The Bottom Line
In the end, only regime change in Iran and North Korea is likely to diminish the threat posed by these nations' governments. We had better be doing everything possible to encourage such an outcome. In the meantime, it would be irresponsible to invite EMP-induced disaster by remaining unable either to defend against or to deter such an attack and its effects.
Strike first...Answer Questions later.
We are watching history in the making -- they will come to an end...just how and when is the question at the moment.
"Without realistic testing, we can only introduce changes in the components or designs of existing weapons at the risk of further degrading confidence they will work."
This guy's logic is seriously flawed. If he believes our weaponry advances are limited by a lack of testing, why does he believe the Iranian or NK weapons will work? Neither country has tested even a rudimentary device, while we know our earlier designs worked, including the very first, and very well, I might add (cf, Hiroshima, Nagasaki). The Iranins and NKs do not have Edward Teller working for them, either. Moreover, I fail to see how an EMF attack by a single warhead, even 400 miles above the US, could reach every circuit and electronic component in the US. Ous systems are designed with backups, redundancy, as NASA terms it, so it is unlikely we could be put into an 18th-Century state.
This kind of writing is scare-mongering that builds up the enemy and tears down the US.
The dictators of these countries may not be suicidal but fear, hatred or insanity can drive them to the same disastrous result.
I'm hoping for an internal uprising in the near term (at least in Iran) and, if not, you're on the money . . . fire away!!
The only thing that would stop an Islamic fanatic from nuking us is the certainty that we would nuke Mecca, Medina, Qom, and every other Sunni or Shi'ite holy place. This is MAD for the 21st century.
That's right. Blow these SOBs of the map, to hell with the bleeding hearts I say, these countries are a threat to the world, not just the US.
Regime change, not war, is the answer.
And Ceaucescu-style retirements - heads on pikes!
Let's keep in mind the overall history of North Korea's nuclear program. They have been researching since the 1950's. Yongbyon has been around since the early 1960's, it was originaly built by the Soviets. North Korea also tested nuclear weapons triggers in the late 1980's. It is entirely conceivable that the North Koreans have a working device by now, they certainly have all the materials that they need. Keep in mind they've been hiding their activities from the IAEA since 1985.
Yes, I agree, but my point is that the writer's logic is flawed because he seems to assume our advanced weaponry will not work as advertised due to lack of real testing, while the NK and Iranian weapons can be used to destroy us, even though they have not tested a device. Our seismologists would know if either country had lit one off...
He also seems to not be aware that North Korea tested their triggers in the late 1980's.
"This guy's logic is seriously flawed. If he believes our weaponry advances are limited by a lack of testing, why does he believe the Iranian or NK weapons will work? Neither country has tested even a rudimentary device, while we know our earlier designs worked, including the very first, and very well, I might add (cf, Hiroshima, Nagasaki). The Iranins and NKs do not have Edward Teller working for them, either. Moreover, I fail to see how an EMF attack by a single warhead, even 400 miles above the US, could reach every circuit and electronic component in the US. Ous systems are designed with backups, redundancy, as NASA terms it, so it is unlikely we could be put into an 18th-Century state.
This kind of writing is scare-mongering that builds up the enemy and tears down the US."
Exactly. I remember doing a ton of reading on nuclear weapons in the early 1990's. That was when the Soviets still had a massive arsenal of 20 Megaton "City Busters". Even the biggest and baddest did not emit EMP burst beyond a few square miles so this guy is definately out of his tree. Detonating them even 5 miles up would be completely negligable as far as EMP effects are concerned. The blast and radiation would be a seperate matter, but if somehow Iran or North Korea did launch a missle like this from their country or a "ship", their society would cease to exist and they know it.
I am not concerned that we do not spend enough money in testing our trillian of dollar nuclear ballistic missle program. I am concerned that we are still way to lax on our borders and testing shipping coming into the country.
EMP testing and regime change in North Korea or Iran should be seperate articles...
Sorry, but you are absolutely, ignorantly wrong. Fortunately, ignorance can be cured with education. First, the physics.
It is an absolutely confirmed fact that the high altitude H-Bomb test in the South Pacific caused an Electro-Magnetic Pulse which in turn caused electric outages and destruction of electronic equipment in Hawaii - hundreds of miles away. (And that was before we had electronic ignition and computerized control of automobiles, or digital phone switches, or millions of devices controlled by computer chips.) When this happened, it took the Physicists by surprise, and a major effort was required to describe the phenomena involved. A good summary of what they found is contained at http://jya.com/emp02.htm which describes the physics, and what is required to protect electronic equipment from such pulses.
The extrapolation of that kind of attack was described accurately, with attributions, in the book "Warday: And its Journey Onward", which can be obtained from Amazon. A review of this book at Amazon reads, in part:
On October 27, 1988, the United States and the Soviet Union fight a "limited" nuclear war. Washington, DC, and San Antonio are vaporized. New York City is left in ruins. Electromagnetic pulses wipe out computers and electronic car ignitions. Radiation sickness is followed by famine and a flu epidemic. Five years after Warday, two writers tour what was the United States to assemble this documentary of life after the war, weaving together interviews, government documents, and the chronicle of their travels.
This is a truly frightening book about a truly frightening phenomenon. And it is for this reason that we should rationally fear any rogue regime with nukes.
That depends on which party holds the white house.
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